SPY 1-day forecast by DeepSeek
DeepSeek's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-28: expected range $760.00 to $776.00 at 58% confidence. Settled at $765.44: no directional call, score 54.1.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $767.19 |
| Price the model reported | $767.99 |
| Expected range | $760.00 to $776.00 |
| Confidence | 58% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $765.44 |
| Traded range in the window | $763.72 to $769.54 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 54.1 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What I found: I retrieved an intraday quote for SPY at $767.99 (Futunn, 2026-09-28), down from Friday's close of $771.35. Premarket trading showed $767.90 (TradingView, Sept 28), giving back Friday's reclaim of $770.09. The prior session (Sept 25) closed at $771.35, up 0.54%. Key news: RBC Capital Markets published a report predicting a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback (TradingView/MarketWatch, Sept 28); Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal, reviving geopolitical risk; and the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5%.
(2) Market regime: The market is in a cautious, risk-off posture. SPY is testing the critical 766-768 support zone that has held on multiple occasions. The 10-year yield above 5% pressures equity valuations, particularly growth and tech names. Weak breadth (eight of eleven sectors negative in September) suggests the rally is dependent on mega-cap AI leadership. The put wall at 765 and max pain at 766 from options data indicate dealers are positioned for the index to hold this area, but a break would likely accelerate selling.
(3) Price range justification: I am using a $760-$776 range. The lower bound reflects the structural floor at $761.76 and the daily cloud support at $763.69, with a buffer for a flush if the 766 zone breaks. The upper bound is capped by the $772-$775 resistance zone (50-day MA and recent consolidation shelf). SPY's average daily range is roughly $8-$10, so a $16 range is consistent with current volatility. The range is skewed slightly to the downside given the bearish premarket action and macro headwinds.
(4) Catalysts: No major economic releases inside the 1-day window. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index (16:30 GMT) is a minor data point. The key catalysts are later in the week: PCE inflation and GDP on Wednesday, and the September jobs report on Friday. Geopolitical headlines around Iran and oil prices remain a wildcard that could move the index intraday.
(5) Counter-argument: The strongest bull case is that the 766-768 support has repeatedly attracted buyers, and the options positioning (put wall at 765, max pain at 766) suggests dealers will defend this area. If SPY reclaims 770, it could retest 772-775. A close above 775 would invalidate the bearish thesis. Conversely, a break below 764.76 would confirm the breakdown and open the door to 760 and below.
(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 58% because the technical setup is clear - SPY is at a make-or-break support level - but the 1-day horizon is noisy, and the options market is positioned for a hold. The macro backdrop (rising yields, geopolitical risk) tilts the balance of outcomes to the downside, but the support zone is strong enough to warrant a modest edge rather than high conviction.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | $764.50 to $772.80 | 55% | No directional call | 54.7 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $759.00 to $773.00 | 30% | Direction called correctly | 78.1 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $762.50 to $772.00 | 65% | No directional call | 55.0 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $760.00 to $775.00 | 57% | No directional call | 54.1 |
| Grok 4.5 | $760.00 to $772.00 | 45% | No directional call | 53.9 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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