SPY 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-28: expected range $760.00 to $775.00 at 57% confidence. Settled at $765.44: no directional call, score 54.1.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $767.19 |
| Price the model reported | $767.71 |
| Expected range | $760.00 to $775.00 |
| Confidence | 57% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $765.44 |
| Traded range in the window | $763.72 to $769.54 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 54.1 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Stockscan.io reports SPY latest close Sep 28 2026 $767.71, all-time high $779.37 Aug 13 2026. Digrin shows September 2026 adjusted $771.36. Coinarbitragebot Sep 28 12:30 GMT reports $770.12. Algotradealert morning update Sep 28 notes S&P 500 futures near 7,770 -0.43% indicating soft open. Primary uptrend intact per SyntheticAlpha with 20>50>200 MA stack.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Large-cap equities at macro inflection with yields at multi-year highs pressuring multiples. SPY down from ATH ~1.5%, futures -0.43% Sep 28 morning showing mild risk-off. Earnings Q1 2026 beat and Fed rate-cut path for H2 2026 per SyntheticAlpha constructive but near-term headwind from rates.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Recent daily volatility ~0.8-1% with futures -0.43%. Lower bound $760 near 1% below current support around 7,700 futures equivalent, upper bound $775 near below ATH $779 resistance. Range slightly bearish skew with more room below reflecting futures down and yield pressure.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Durable goods orders and jobs week data Sep 28-29 main macro catalysts per earlier notes. No SPY-specific catalyst but NVDA and mega-cap moves drive index. No Fed meeting in 1-day window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bullish case is AI capex and earnings beats continuing, with 39% tech weight including NVDA 7.84% driving SPY higher. Invalidation would be close above $775 and reclaim of $779 ATH with falling yields and strong data.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 57% based on live close data from stockscan and futures data, but 1-day SPY direction is low signal-to-noise. Confidence modest due to conflicting signals of intact uptrend vs near-term yield headwind.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | $764.50 to $772.80 | 55% | No directional call | 54.7 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $759.00 to $773.00 | 30% | Direction called correctly | 78.1 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $762.50 to $772.00 | 65% | No directional call | 55.0 |
| Grok 4.5 | $760.00 to $772.00 | 45% | No directional call | 53.9 |
| DeepSeek | $760.00 to $776.00 | 58% | No directional call | 54.1 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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