IONQ 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-25: expected range $42.50 to $48.20 at 54% confidence. Settled at $45.99: direction called correctly, score 64.0.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $46.25 |
| Price the model reported | $45.67 |
| Expected range | $42.50 to $48.20 |
| Confidence | 54% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $45.99 |
| Traded range in the window | $45.15 to $47.91 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 64.0 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub IONQ quote Sep 25 shows current 45.67, open 44.7, high 46.36, low 44.12, previous close 44.98, 5-day +23.97%. American Market News Sep 25 notes gap up from 40.74 close to 45.84 open and last 42.9010 earlier. Archynetys Sep 25 07:04 UTC reports rally over 12% on demonstration of real-time quantum error decoding over 31.5M operations on standard CPU. Ainvest Sep 25 reports tumble 6% later same day with $3.1B volume rank 27 on mixed sector signals, showing intraday reversal and high volatility.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quantum sector is in high-beta momentum regime. IONQ beta 3.34 per Finnhub, 52-week range 25.89-84.64, YTD +1.78% but 1Y -34%. Market Sep 25 is risk-on with XLK +0.82% leading, yet yields uptick pressuring long-duration. IONQ is trading above 20-day but below 84.64 high, with unusually large options volume 106k calls +40% vs average per American Market News. Regime is news-driven spike followed by profit-taking.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to live 45.67. Using intraday range 44.12-46.36 (2.24 range) and recent 5-day return 23.97%, implied 1-day ATR ~8-10%. Lower bound 42.50 aligns with earlier last trade 42.90 and gap fill support, upper bound 48.20 aligns with pre-market high 45.84 plus extension toward $50 psychological target cited by TradingNews $50 target above $40.75 on error-correction news. Range skewed slightly up (2.53 above vs 3.17 below) reflecting bullish catalyst but acknowledging fade risk.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings scheduled inside 1-day window (Q2 already reported, stock flat at 40.02 after beat per Webull). Catalyst is ongoing news flow: FIU quantum computer acquisition PR Sep 25 and error-decoder demo. No SEC filing expected in next 24h. Main driver is options gamma and momentum from Sep 25 news. After-hours move Sep 25 -7.64% noted by Ainvest on acquisition-driven growth concerns could spill into next session open.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is high valuation 38x 2026 sales guidance $455M per TradingNews, $2B cash but no debt, 61% revenue from 3 customers per Ainvest, and insider selling concerns. If quantum sector sentiment turns or TLT weakness drives risk-off, IONQ could retest 40.74 prior close. Invalidation would be close below 42.50 on high volume breaking gap support, or close above 48.20 on sustained call buying confirming breakout.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 54% reflects live data access but conflicting intraday signals (rally 12% and tumble 6% both reported same day Sep 25). High beta 3.34 and options volume make 1-day direction noisy. Data is live per Finnhub Sep 25, but lack of clear institutional flow direction lowers conviction. Neutral 30-day reflects stretched valuation vs long-term potential.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $41.50 to $49.00 | 57% | Direction called incorrectly | 13.8 |
| Perplexity | $41.00 to $47.00 | 45% | Direction called incorrectly | 22.1 |
| Grok 4.5 | $42.50 to $47.50 | 40% | Direction called incorrectly | 9.8 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $40.00 to $48.50 | 50% | Direction called incorrectly | 21.0 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $43.50 to $47.50 | 60% | Direction called correctly | 74.8 |
| DeepSeek | $43.00 to $49.00 | 58% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.3 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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