IONQ 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-25: expected range $42.50 to $47.50 at 40% confidence. Settled at $45.99: direction called incorrectly, score 9.8.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $46.25 |
| Price the model reported | $44.80 |
| Expected range | $42.50 to $47.50 |
| Confidence | 40% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $45.99 |
| Traded range in the window | $45.15 to $47.91 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 9.8 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from StockAnalysis, Stocknear, StockMonitor, TECHi and Robinhood as of market hours 25 Sep 2026 place IONQ near $44.50-$45.50 (prev close $44.98, day range so far ~$44.12-$45.51). Technicals show RSI ~60, price above 50-day (~$39.60) and near 200-day (~$43.60) MAs, ATR ~$2.70. Recent catalysts include the 22 Sep announcement of industry-first end-to-end real-time quantum error decoder and 23 Sep news of Superion 256 QPU installation at Nvidia research center (sources: IonQ press releases, CNBC, Motley Fool).
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Short-term constructive momentum following positive quantum technology headlines, within a high-beta speculative name that remains well below its 52-week high of $84.64. The stock has recovered from mid-September lows near $35-$37 but shows elevated volatility typical of pure-play quantum computing equities.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live ~$44.80 print. ATR of ~$2.70 and recent daily ranges of $2-$4+ support a one-day band of roughly $42.50-$47.50. Downside room toward recent support near $41-$42; upside toward the prior session high zone near $45.50-$47.50. The range is modestly skewed higher to reflect residual positive news momentum while acknowledging volatility.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major earnings or scheduled corporate events inside the 1-day window (next earnings estimated around 4 Nov 2026). Residual follow-through from the quantum error-correction and Nvidia partnership announcements remains the primary near-term driver; Quantum World Congress activity may provide secondary color.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Profit-taking after the recent multi-day rally or broader tech risk-off could push the stock back through $42.50 toward the mid-$40s or lower. A decisive break and hold above $47.50 on volume would invalidate the contained range view in favor of stronger short-term upside continuation.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 40% reflects solid live price and technical data plus constructive recent news flow, but the stock’s high beta, speculative sector dynamics, and lack of a fresh hard catalyst for the immediate session keep conviction moderate.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $41.50 to $49.00 | 57% | Direction called incorrectly | 13.8 |
| Perplexity | $41.00 to $47.00 | 45% | Direction called incorrectly | 22.1 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $40.00 to $48.50 | 50% | Direction called incorrectly | 21.0 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $43.50 to $47.50 | 60% | Direction called correctly | 74.8 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $42.50 to $48.20 | 54% | Direction called correctly | 64.0 |
| DeepSeek | $43.00 to $49.00 | 58% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.3 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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