NVDA 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-09-25: expected range $221.50 to $228.50 at 56% confidence. Settled at $230.49: direction called correctly, score 77.1.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $224.35 |
| Price the model reported | $224.54 |
| Expected range | $221.50 to $228.50 |
| Confidence | 56% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $230.49 |
| Traded range in the window | $223.31 to $233.21 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 77.1 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub real-time quote as of Sep 25 shows Current Price 224.54, Open 225.13, High 226.94, Low 223.13, Previous Close 224.58, change -0.04. LiteFinance snapshot as of 25.09.2026 reports NVDA trading at $224.61 with -0.41% over 24h. Finbold intraday quote $223.46 -0.50%. Consensus live price cluster $224.5-$224.6. Returns: 5-day +4.97%, 1-month +5.39%, YTD +20.4% from same Finnhub page.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: NVDA in a stabilizing uptrend after May all-time high $236.37, now ~5% below ATH, holding above $223 support intraday. High beta 2.22 indicates amplified market sensitivity but volume profile 156M on recent rally day suggests institutional accumulation despite insider Rule 10b5-1 sales reported by MarketBeat. Q2 13F flows mixed but net institutional buying (BIP Wealth +31.9%, R Squared +802.8%) offsets trims. No major index break, semiconductors leading.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Using today's range 223.13-226.94 = 1.7% true range and ATR proxy ~$4.5. Anchored at 224.54, setting lower bound at 221.50 (prior swing low and -1.35% below) and upper at 228.50 (above today's high, +1.76% above). Skew mildly bullish (+$3.96 up vs -$3.04 down) reflecting 5-day momentum +4.97% and close near flat, implying buyers defending dips. One-day move of ~1.5-2% is typical for NVDA even in low VIX.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: 1-day window ending Sep 26 15:10 UTC is Friday to Saturday market closed period, so only Friday afternoon US session remains. No NVDA earnings scheduled; earnings season is late October. Macro catalyst is US market close and options expiration flows on Friday. News feed shows only 13F filing updates and Needham Buy reiteration Sep 5, no product launch or regulatory headline dated Sep 25. Risk of end-of-week profit taking after +4.97% 5-day run.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is intraday failure at 226.94 resistance with small negative change -0.0178% signaling exhaustion, plus pre-arranged insider selling (EVP Timothy Teter $6.8M) reported Sep 25 that could weigh on sentiment. If NVDA breaks below 223.13 low on rising volume or Nasdaq sells off, range shifts to $218-$223. Invalidation is a close below $221.50 or above $228.50 on heavy volume.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 56% reflects low directional edge over 1 day (noise dominates) but higher conviction on range containment given tight intraday spread and absence of scheduled catalyst. Data access is live (quotes dated Sep 25 2026), but limited news flow for next 24h reduces predictability. Hence MILD BULLISH not BULLISH for 1d, with modest width $7.00 to capture ~1.5x daily ATR.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $220.00 to $231.00 | 57% | Direction called correctly | 81.0 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $221.00 to $228.00 | 60% | No directional call | 49.9 |
| Perplexity | $220.00 to $228.00 | 48% | Direction called incorrectly | 11.0 |
| Grok 4.5 | $220.00 to $229.00 | 42% | No directional call | 50.5 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $218.50 to $231.50 | 55% | No directional call | 52.5 |
| DeepSeek | $222.00 to $232.00 | 62% | Direction called correctly | 82.1 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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