NVDA 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-09-25: expected range $220.00 to $229.00 at 42% confidence. Settled at $230.49: no directional call, score 50.5.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $224.35 |
| Price the model reported | $224.55 |
| Expected range | $220.00 to $229.00 |
| Confidence | 42% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $230.49 |
| Traded range in the window | $223.31 to $233.21 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 50.5 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from StockAnalysis, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com and others as of market open 25 Sep 2026 show NVDA near $224.50-$224.58 (prev close $224.58, day range so far ~$223.13-$226.94). Technicals from Stoxline, TECHi, FXEmpire and Trendlyne indicate RSI ~54-56, MACD positive but flattening, price above 20/50/200-day MAs ($221-$216-$199), support near $221-$217, resistance $227-$234. Recent news includes strong Q2 FY27 results (rev $96.2B, +106% YoY) with $108B Q3 guide and ~70% FY28 growth outlook (NVIDIA release 26 Aug), Vera Rubin production ramp, and ongoing AI demand commentary.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Constructive consolidation after post-earnings gains. Broader AI infrastructure demand remains intact with supply constraints still cited as the limiter rather than demand saturation. Short-term tape is range-bound with balanced momentum; longer-term structure stays bullish on the multi-year AI factory buildout narrative.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the live ~$224.55 print. ATR around $6 and recent daily ranges of $3-$8 support a one-day band of roughly $220-$229. Downside room to the 20-day MA / prior support zone near $221-$217; upside to recent highs and first resistance near $227-$230. The range is modestly skewed higher to reflect the mild positive bias from MA alignment and residual post-earnings momentum rather than pure symmetry.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major company-specific events on 25-26 Sep. Dividend payment is 1 Oct; next earnings estimated mid-to-late November. Near-term noise possible from broader market, China/trade headlines, or secondary AI commentary, but nothing scheduled that is NVDA-specific within the 1-day window.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sudden risk-off move in tech or negative AI/China headlines could push price through $220 support toward the mid-$210s, flipping the short-term bias. Equally, a sharp breakout above $230 on volume would invalidate the neutral-to-mild range view in favor of stronger upside continuation.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 42% reflects solid live price and technical data but inherent one-day equity noise, absence of a decisive catalyst, and mixed short-term oscillator readings that leave direction close to a coin-flip outside the broader constructive backdrop.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $220.00 to $231.00 | 57% | Direction called correctly | 81.0 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $221.00 to $228.00 | 60% | No directional call | 49.9 |
| Perplexity | $220.00 to $228.00 | 48% | Direction called incorrectly | 11.0 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $218.50 to $231.50 | 55% | No directional call | 52.5 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $221.50 to $228.50 | 56% | Direction called correctly | 77.1 |
| DeepSeek | $222.00 to $232.00 | 62% | Direction called correctly | 82.1 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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