SPY 1-day forecast by Grok 4
Grok 4's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-23: expected range $764.00 to $773.00 at 45% confidence. Settled at $767.82: no directional call, score 54.2.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $768.00 |
| Price the model reported | $768.20 |
| Expected range | $764.00 to $773.00 |
| Confidence | 45% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $767.82 |
| Traded range in the window | $763.25 to $768.95 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 54.2 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from MarketWatch (approximately $768.11 as of 2:34 p.m. EDT), TradeSmith ($768.66 around 2:18 p.m. EDT), Stockmonitor, and TECHi show SPY trading near $768 after opening near $772.79 and ranging $766.50-$773.05. Previous close was $773.38. Sources confirm a modest down day of roughly 0.6-0.8 percent following a strong session on September 21.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Near-term consolidation after a recent rebound. SPY remains well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages in a longer-term uptrend, supported by strong Q3 earnings expectations (consensus around 25-30 percent growth) and resilient economic data. The September 16 Fed rate hike and elevated Treasury yields have introduced some caution, contributing to today's pullback from the mid-770s area.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the ~$768.20 quote, the $764-$773 range reflects typical one-day realized volatility (recent ATR near $7 and daily ranges of $5-10). Support sits near the day's low and recent consolidation zones around $765-$766; resistance aligns with the prior close and session highs near $773. The range is modestly asymmetric lower to allow for follow-through selling pressure after the day's decline.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Limited major data releases in the immediate 24-hour period after the U.S. close; residual focus on any Fed speaker comments, oil inventory data, and positioning into month-end. Broader context includes ongoing Q3 earnings optimism and rate-path speculation.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-on rebound driven by positive AI or earnings sentiment could push back toward or through $773 quickly. Conversely, broader risk-off flows or yield spikes could break $764 support. A decisive move outside the stated range on volume would invalidate the neutral short-term stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: One-day equity moves after a modest down session are frequently noise-dominated. Live price and recent session data provide a clear anchor, but the absence of a dominant near-term catalyst and mixed short-term technical readings keep conviction in the mid-40s percent range.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $758.50 to $775.00 | 60% | Direction called incorrectly | 56.4 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $762.00 to $778.00 | 32% | No directional call | 52.9 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $764.00 to $775.00 | 57% | No directional call | 54.5 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $769.00 to $781.00 | 65% | No directional call | 53.6 |
| DeepSeek | $762.00 to $775.00 | 55% | No directional call | 54.2 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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