SPY 1-day forecast by GPT-5.6 Sol
GPT-5.6 Sol's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-23: expected range $758.50 to $775.00 at 60% confidence. Settled at $767.82: direction called incorrectly, score 56.4.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | GPT-5.6 Sol |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $768.00 |
| Price the model reported | $768.31 |
| Expected range | $758.50 to $775.00 |
| Confidence | 60% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $767.82 |
| Traded range in the window | $763.25 to $768.95 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 56.4 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What I found: The freshest timestamped SPY quote I could verify was $768.31 at 2:09 PM EDT on September 23, versus a September 22 close of $773.38. ChartExchange separately showed SPY at $769.08 earlier in the session, with a $768.38-$773.01 range. Because my freshest precisely timestamped SPY quote was about 42 minutes before the requested 18:51 UTC baseline, I classify data_access as partial rather than live. Sources: https://www.benzinga.com/quote/SPY and https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-spy/historical/
(2) Market regime: The immediate regime has turned risk-off. Reuters reported U.S. equities falling as the 10-year Treasury yield surged to about 5.054%, its highest level since 2007, after the September flash U.S. Composite PMI rose to 58.4 and strengthened expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase. Crude oil also rebounded as Middle East tensions persisted, reversing two important supports that helped equities earlier in the week. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-23/ and https://www.reuters.com/world/china/wall-st-futures-steady-with-focus-mideast-talks-us-china-summit-2026-09-23/
(3) Price range: I use $758.50-$775.00 for the next 24 hours. The lower bound allows a retest of last week's $758-$762 support region if Treasury yields remain above 5% and today's selling broadens. The upper bound reaches back toward the September 22 high around $775 but does not assume an immediate breakout because the rate backdrop has deteriorated materially. The range is deliberately asymmetric to the downside from the verified $768.31 quote because higher yields, stronger economic data and recovering oil prices all currently work against equity valuation expansion. Sources: https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-spy/historical/ and https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-23/
(4) Catalysts inside the window: The dominant catalyst is the interest-rate repricing. Reuters reported Fed funds futures assigning roughly a 73% probability to an October rate increase, up from about 53% earlier, after unexpectedly strong business-activity data. Middle East diplomacy and oil prices remain another major swing factor, while investors are also preparing for the U.S.-China summit and its implications for trade, AI and semiconductor policy. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-23/ and https://www.reuters.com/world/china/wall-st-futures-steady-with-focus-mideast-talks-us-china-summit-2026-09-23/
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish counter-case is that strong PMI data also signal resilient corporate demand and economic growth, while the S&P 500 remains close to record territory after repeatedly absorbing higher yields this year. A renewed decline in oil prices or Treasury yields could therefore trigger a quick rebound. A sustained recovery above roughly $773-$775 would weaken the mild bearish one-day interpretation, whereas a break below roughly $764-$765 would indicate that today's rate-driven pressure is becoming a deeper retracement. Sources: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-09-23/ and https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-spy/historical/
(6) Confidence: 60% reflects a moderate bearish edge rather than a high-conviction call. The combination of a 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, stronger-than-expected business activity, sharply higher October rate-hike expectations, recovering oil prices and an already negative SPY session supports MILD BEARISH across the short and one-day horizons. Confidence is capped because economic strength can support earnings, geopolitical headlines can reverse oil rapidly, and my freshest timestamped SPY quote predates the requested baseline by roughly 42 minutes.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 | $762.00 to $778.00 | 32% | No directional call | 52.9 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $764.00 to $775.00 | 57% | No directional call | 54.5 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $769.00 to $781.00 | 65% | No directional call | 53.6 |
| Grok 4 | $764.00 to $773.00 | 45% | No directional call | 54.2 |
| DeepSeek | $762.00 to $775.00 | 55% | No directional call | 54.2 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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