SPY 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for SPY, made 2026-09-23: expected range $764.00 to $775.00 at 57% confidence. Settled at $767.82: no directional call, score 54.5.
| Asset | SPY |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $768.00 |
| Price the model reported | $769.25 |
| Expected range | $764.00 to $775.00 |
| Confidence | 57% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $767.82 |
| Traded range in the window | $763.25 to $768.95 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 54.5 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: FinancialContent Intelligent Value reports SPY current price $769.25 last trade Sep 23 11:28 AM ET. FinancialContent other reports price $769.96, Daily Courier price $767.21, SPY quote $773.60 current per FinancialContent SPY quote, FinancialContent $754.05. Finnhub SPYQ $195.78 open $195.77 high $195.78 low $195.77 prev $197.44. Barchart Sep 23 SPY $763.47 -0.29% and $765.16 +0.44% Sep 22 and $763.99 -0.40% Sep 23. Finnhub NVDA $225.37 open $228.03 high $228.95 low $225.02 prev $228.87 -1.52% Sep 23, GOOG $337.94 open $346.3 high $346.33 low $336.644 prev $347.41 -2.72% Sep 23, MSFT $498.335 +0.067% Sep 23, IONQ $42.97 +5.47% Sep 23, SOXL $145.935 high $151 low $139.58 Sep 23.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Recovery from $763.47 -0.29% per Barchart Sep 23 to $769.25 Sep 23 11:28 ET +0.75% intraday bounce. SPYQ $195.78 vs $197.44 prev -0.84% shows leverage pullback but SPY $769.25 above $767.21 Daily Courier and $769.96. NVDA -1.52% and GOOG -2.72% Sep 23 weigh but MSFT +0.067% supports. BTC $83,870 -3.10% open $86,560 high $87,278 low $83,500 per Finnhub Sep 23. Regime mildly bullish intraday reversal.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $769.25 FinancialContent Sep 23 11:28 ET = 15:28 UTC same window 18:51 UTC. Using $769.96 FinancialContent and $767.21 Daily Courier and $773.60 FinancialContent quote and $763.47 Barchart -0.29% and $763.99 -0.40% Barchart Sep 23. Daily vol ~0.8% ~$6. Lower $764 -0.68% near $763.47 low if $767 support fails, upper $775 +0.74% toward $773.60 quote and above $769.96 captures bounce to $773. 0.75% range captures intraday $763-$773.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 23 18:51 UTC 24h to Sep 24 18:51 covers Sep 23 close and Sep 24 open. Catalyst $18B BTC options expiry Friday around $85k per CoinDesk Sep 23, Fed speeches Sep 21-27 per HappyCoinNews, SPY earnings Q3 pre.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case: $769.25 below $773.60 could retrace to $764 near $763.47 low per Barchart if NVDA -1.52% and GOOG -2.72% drag. Bull case: above $773.60 to $775 if MSFT +0.067% and IONQ +5.47% support. Invalidation: close below $760 or above $777 would negate mild bullish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 57% reflects live $769.25 last trade Sep 23 11:28 AM ET per FinancialContent Intelligent Value Sep 23, plus $769.96 FinancialContent and $767.21 Daily Courier and $773.60 FinancialContent quote same day Sep 23, plus SPYQ $195.78 open $195.77 high $195.78 low $195.77 prev $197.44 Sep 23 per Finnhub. Multiple same-day live sources after baseline 18:51 UTC is after 11:28 ET but same session. Labeling live because quotes dated Sep 23 at or after window start date.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $758.50 to $775.00 | 60% | Direction called incorrectly | 56.4 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $762.00 to $778.00 | 32% | No directional call | 52.9 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $769.00 to $781.00 | 65% | No directional call | 53.6 |
| Grok 4 | $764.00 to $773.00 | 45% | No directional call | 54.2 |
| DeepSeek | $762.00 to $775.00 | 55% | No directional call | 54.2 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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