NVDA 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-09-21: expected range $222.00 to $232.00 at 45% confidence. Settled at $229.84: direction called incorrectly, score 31.0.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $227.26 |
| Price the model reported | $227.50 |
| Expected range | $222.00 to $232.00 |
| Confidence | 45% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $229.84 |
| Traded range in the window | $226.50 to $229.98 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 31.0 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from Yahoo Finance ($227.27 as of ~3:51 PM EDT), Motley Fool ($227.53), StockAnalysis ($227.51), CNBC (~$228), TradeSmith ($227.44), and MarketWatch (~$227.55) place NVDA near $227.50 late on 21 Sep 2026. Prior close was $222.27; day range approximately $221.56-$228.50 on volume near 70-80M shares. Sources are the respective quote pages dated 21 Sep 2026.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: NVDA is advancing on the day within a broader semiconductor and AI-related risk-on session, supported by positive comments from CEO Jensen Huang rejecting extreme AI doomsday scenarios and ongoing optimism around potential U.S.-China discussions that could affect AI chip demand. The stock trades near the upper end of its recent range but remains below the 52-week high of $236.54, with solid fundamental momentum from data-center AI infrastructure demand.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the verified ~$227.50 quote, the $222-$232 band incorporates the session low as a realistic support pivot on any profit-taking and allows modest extension toward recent resistance levels. Typical recent daily ranges of 2-4% for NVDA support this width for a one-day horizon without assuming an outsized gap or reversal.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company earnings fall inside the next trading day; the next report is projected around mid-to-late November 2026 (sources including Yahoo Finance and earnings calendars list ~17-18 Nov). Near-term drivers are limited to broader market sentiment, semiconductor peer moves, and any further headlines related to AI policy or the anticipated Trump-Xi meeting.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A sharp risk-off move in tech or profit-taking after today’s gain could push the stock back toward the prior close; a decisive break below $222 with volume would shift short-term signals to neutral or mild bearish and invalidate the mild upside bias.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 45% reflects consistent live price confirmation across multiple sources and a coherent positive short-term tape, offset by the inherent noise of single-day equity forecasts, the absence of an immediate company-specific catalyst, and NVDA’s elevated beta that can amplify both upside and downside moves.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $220.50 to $234.50 | 61% | Direction called correctly | 80.7 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $219.50 to $232.00 | 30% | Direction called correctly | 77.3 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $222.00 to $232.00 | 60% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.8 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $222.00 to $234.00 | 75% | Direction called correctly | 82.2 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $218.50 to $229.50 | 58% | Direction called incorrectly | 37.2 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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