NVDA 1-day forecast by Claude Opus 5
Claude Opus 5's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-09-21: expected range $219.50 to $232.00 at 30% confidence. Settled at $229.84: direction called correctly, score 77.3.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | Claude Opus 5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $227.26 |
| Price the model reported | $225.50 |
| Expected range | $219.50 to $232.00 |
| Confidence | 30% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $229.84 |
| Traded range in the window | $226.50 to $229.98 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 77.3 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What I found: Yahoo Finance showed NVDA at $225.31, up 1.37% (+$3.04), as of 12:11 p.m. EDT on September 21, 2026, against a Friday close of $222.27 (confirmed by CNBC's quote page). An Investing.com history page lists a September 21 range of $221.56-$227.67 with an open of $222.88, though that page's metadata makes its date less certain. The 52-week range is $164.27-$236.54 (CNBC). My latest quote is from about 16:11 UTC, roughly 3.7 hours before the 19:53 UTC window start, so $225.50 is an estimate carried forward, not a live quote. I have no reliable clock, so answered_at_utc is 'unknown'.
(2) Market regime: Chips are leading a risk-on Monday; TipRanks ran a same-day headline on Nvidia, AMD and Intel rising, alongside falling oil and 10-year yields back below 5%. Company-specific tailwinds from last week include CNBC reporting that Jensen Huang expects Nvidia to sell twice as many chips next year, and ABC News (via TipRanks) reporting the OpenAI and Nvidia CEOs will attend the Trump-Xi state dinner. Headwinds: the Fed's September 16 hike, NVDA still about 5% below its May high, AI-regulation headlines (California executive order), and CFO share sales of $7.65M reported September 18.
(3) Price range: With NVDA's beta around 2.2 (CNBC) and recent daily moves of 2%-3%, a one-day band of roughly $6 either side is reasonable. I set $219.50-$232.00, tilted slightly upward: the lower bound sits below Friday's $222.27 close and the morning low near $221.56, while the upper bound allows a push toward the $230-$234 area reached in early September (Trading Economics noted $230.48 on September 4) without reaching the $236.54 52-week high.
(4) Catalysts in the window: No Nvidia earnings in the window; CNBC lists the next report around November 20, 2026 (estimated). Swing factors are the Trump-Xi summit later this week and any related export-control headlines, oil and Iran news driving risk appetite, and yields near 5%.
(5) Counter-argument: Monday's gain may already price in the summit optimism; any hint that China access or export rules tighten, or a reversal in oil and yields, could quickly push NVDA back below $222. AI-regulation headlines and insider selling add supply. A close back below Friday's $222.27 would undercut the mild bullish 1-day lean.
(6) Confidence: 30% reflects a price anchor several hours old, a narrow directional edge, and headline-driven risk around US-China relations, all of which make a one-day call only marginally better than a coin flip.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $220.50 to $234.50 | 61% | Direction called correctly | 80.7 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $222.00 to $232.00 | 60% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.8 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $222.00 to $234.00 | 75% | Direction called correctly | 82.2 |
| Grok 4.5 | $222.00 to $232.00 | 45% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.0 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $218.50 to $229.50 | 58% | Direction called incorrectly | 37.2 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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