IONQ 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-21: expected range $39.00 to $42.50 at 43% confidence. Settled at $40.77: direction called correctly, score 78.7.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $40.49 |
| Price the model reported | $40.65 |
| Expected range | $39.00 to $42.50 |
| Confidence | 43% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $40.77 |
| Traded range in the window | $39.87 to $40.80 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 78.7 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from Yahoo Finance ($40.68 as of ~2:03 PM EDT), Motley Fool ($40.66), StockAnalysis ($40.70-$40.71), TradeSmith ($40.60 as of 3:44 PM EDT), ChartExchange (~$40.90), and Stockmonitor (~$40.65-$40.91) place IONQ near $40.65 late on 21 Sep 2026. Prior close was $39.13 on 18 Sep; day range roughly $39.83-$40.93 on volume near 9-10M shares. Sources include Yahoo Finance, Motley Fool, and StockAnalysis pages dated 21 Sep 2026.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: IONQ is trading higher on the day amid broader risk-on sentiment in technology and semiconductor-related names, supported by recent company announcements on quantum algorithm acceleration with partners including NVIDIA and Synopsys (announced mid-September) and the earlier full-year 2026 revenue guidance raise following the SkyWater acquisition. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of $84.64 and has shown high realized volatility, consistent with its growth-stage quantum computing profile and elevated beta.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the verified ~$40.65 quote, the $39.00-$42.50 band reflects typical recent daily ranges of 3-9% for this name and allows for modest continuation of today's advance or a partial fade toward the prior close zone. The lower bound sits near recent session lows, while the upper bound stays within reach of short-term resistance without assuming an outsized move.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No company-specific earnings or major scheduled events fall inside the next trading day; the next reported earnings date is around 4 Nov 2026. Near-term price action is more likely to track broader equity and tech sentiment plus any follow-through from recent quantum collaboration headlines.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: High-beta growth stocks frequently reverse after single-day gains of 3-4%, especially when volume is below recent averages; a break below $39 with rising volume or a sharp risk-off move in the broader market would shift the short-term signals to neutral or mild bearish.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 43% reflects reliable live price data and a coherent short-term positive tape, tempered by the inherent noise of a one-day forecast in a volatile equity, the absence of an immediate catalyst, and the stock's history of rapid mean reversion.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $38.20 to $43.50 | 57% | Direction called correctly | 80.1 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $38.20 to $42.90 | 25% | Direction called correctly | 76.7 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $38.50 to $42.50 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.4 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $39.50 to $41.50 | 70% | Direction called correctly | 81.6 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $37.50 to $43.50 | 60% | Direction called correctly | 80.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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