IONQ 1-day forecast by Claude Opus 5
Claude Opus 5's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-21: expected range $38.20 to $42.90 at 25% confidence. Settled at $40.77: direction called correctly, score 76.7.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | Claude Opus 5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $40.49 |
| Price the model reported | $40.50 |
| Expected range | $38.20 to $42.90 |
| Confidence | 25% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $40.77 |
| Traded range in the window | $39.87 to $40.80 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 76.7 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What I found: Investing.com shows IONQ at $40.56 on September 21, 2026, up from Friday's $39.13 close, with a day range of $39.84-$40.76 and a 52-week range of $25.89-$84.64; its news note described the stock up about 2.8% in morning trading at $40.23. The Crypto Basic reported a pre-market print of $40.04 at 06:42 a.m. ET. My latest quote is from the morning session, not the 19:50 UTC window start, so $40.50 is an estimate carried forward, not a live quote. I have no reliable clock, so answered_at_utc is 'unknown'.
(2) Market regime: IONQ is rebounding from Friday's roughly 3% drop amid a broad tech and chip rally (Nasdaq-100 futures up about 1.1% pre-market per The Crypto Basic). Company fundamentals provide support: on September 8 IonQ raised 2026 revenue guidance to $450M-$460M including SkyWater (from $280M-$290M excluding it), launched the Superion 256 platform with 2027 deliveries, and published research with Oak Ridge National Laboratory and NVIDIA on September 16. But the stock is still less than half its 52-week high, and quantum names swing violently: CNN/TipRanks headlines show +9.43% on September 17 and -6.16% on September 18.
(3) Price range: Using daily volatility of roughly 5%-6% typical for quantum-computing names, I set $38.20-$42.90, deliberately near-symmetric around $40.50 because I see no clear one-day edge after the morning bounce. The lower bound sits just below Friday's $39.13 close; the upper bound allows continuation toward the $42-$43 area.
(4) Catalysts in the window: No company-scheduled event was found inside the window; the next earnings report is November 11, 2026 (Investing.com). Swing factors are sector sentiment (quantum peers, AI and chip flows), oil and Iran headlines driving broad risk appetite, and any further research or contract announcements, which IonQ has issued frequently this month.
(5) Counter-argument: The rebound could extend if the tech rally continues and retail momentum returns to quantum names after last week's research news; conversely, heavy dilution history, persistent losses (StockAnalysis cites a 2025 loss of about $510M) and the sector's tendency to fade rallies could drive a retest of $39 or below. A decisive move outside $39-$42 early in the next session would indicate which side is winning.
(6) Confidence: 25% reflects a price anchor hours older than the window start, very high single-stock volatility, and genuinely mixed short-term signals, which is why the 1-day signal is neutral.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $38.20 to $43.50 | 57% | Direction called correctly | 80.1 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $38.50 to $42.50 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.4 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $39.50 to $41.50 | 70% | Direction called correctly | 81.6 |
| Grok 4.5 | $39.00 to $42.50 | 43% | Direction called correctly | 78.7 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $37.50 to $43.50 | 60% | Direction called correctly | 80.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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