IONQ 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-18: expected range $36.00 to $41.00 at 37% confidence. Settled at $40.25: direction called correctly, score 78.6.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $38.14 |
| Price the model reported | $38.20 |
| Expected range | $36.00 to $41.00 |
| Confidence | 37% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $40.25 |
| Traded range in the window | $37.77 to $40.77 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 78.6 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from Stocknear ($38.08), TradeSmith ($38.08), StockAnalysis ($38.10), MarketWatch ($38.13) and CoinGlass ($39.00) show IONQ trading near $38-$39 as of mid-morning September 18 2026 EDT, down roughly 5-5.6% from the prior close of $40.34. Day range so far is approximately $37.99-$40.94 after a strong +9.50% rebound session on September 17.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: IONQ remains a high-volatility quantum computing name trading well below its 52-week high of $84.64 but above the March 2026 low near $25.89. Recent action shows a multi-day bounce within a broader corrective phase, with sharp swings typical of speculative tech names.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the observed ~$38.20 quote. Realized volatility near 93% annualized and recent daily ranges of $2-$4 support a one-day envelope of roughly ±5-7% around the current level, producing the $36-$41 band. The range is modestly skewed lower to reflect the intraday pullback while allowing room for a rebound toward the prior close.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major company-specific catalysts for the remaining session; residual flows tied to quantum computing sentiment and broader tech sector reaction remain the primary near-term drivers. Next earnings are estimated for early November.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A decisive break above the recent $40-$41 resistance cluster on expanding volume would invalidate the mild short-term bias and open a retest of the $42-$44 area. Conversely, a sustained push below $37 would strengthen the pullback case beyond the neutral 1-day stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is low at 37% because the one-day horizon for a high-beta speculative stock is dominated by noise, quote dispersion is present across sources, and no high-conviction catalyst is present to override the mixed technical recovery picture.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $36.20 to $41.80 | 54% | Direction called incorrectly | 44.8 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $34.70 to $40.80 | 47% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.1 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $37.00 to $43.00 | 50% | Direction called incorrectly | 5.4 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $36.50 to $40.50 | 65% | Direction called correctly | 82.2 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $38.50 to $42.50 | 60% | Direction called incorrectly | 14.0 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.