IONQ 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-18: expected range $37.00 to $43.00 at 50% confidence. Settled at $40.25: direction called incorrectly, score 5.4.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $38.14 |
| Price the model reported | $40.34 |
| Expected range | $37.00 to $43.00 |
| Confidence | 50% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $40.25 |
| Traded range in the window | $37.77 to $40.77 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 5.4 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: FinancialContent reports IONQ current $40.34 last trade Sep 17 2026 07:00 PM ET. MarketBeat Sep 15 close $37.07 open $37.54 high $38.17 low $36.26 vol 12.87M cap $14.12B and Sep 14 $37.54 +2.08% high $38.56 low $35.00 vol 18.19M cap $14.30B. Barchart reports IONQ $41.06 -8.47% with QBTS $18.68 -8.39% IBM $231.04 -1.97% Sep 18, and $37.64 -0.37% $38.04 -3.23%. Stockopedia reports $36.75 delayed 15 min -21.89% 365 days underperform S&P -32.83%. Stockwatch reports IONQ $39.30 +2.45 vol 5,788 33,407 day 38.32-39.40 high 84.64 low 25.90. Webull last week gain 6.98% 43.24 to 46.26 high 47.94 low 42.18 vol 93.9M and loss -7.78% 49.88 to 46.00 high 55.60 low 45.76 vol 74M.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quantum basket selling Sep 18 -8.5% IONQ RGTI -8.60% QBTS -8.39% QTUM -2.35% per Barchart, after Q2 divergence revenue per MarketBeat Aug 19. Fed hike Sep 16 12-0 to 3.75-4.00% hurts high-beta quantum. IONQ $40.34 Sep 17 vs $36.75 Stockopedia now +9% rebound but volatile. Regime neutral with bearish tilt near-term.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $40.34 Sep 17 close. Using day $38.32-$39.40 Stockwatch and $36.26-$38.17 Sep 15 and $41.06 Barchart high. Beta high ~2.5 daily ~5% ~$2. Lower $37 near $37.07 Sep 15 close and $36.75 Stockopedia -8.2% if quantum selloff continues, upper $43 near $43.24-$47.94 last week high +6.5% if bounce. Slight downside skew due to -8.47% basket drop.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 18 14:57 UTC 24h covers quad witching. No IONQ earnings but board additions support next phases per Barchart. Quantum sector ETF flows and D-Wave bookings momentum per Barchart.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case: board additions and backlog growth could squeeze to $43 toward $47.94 high if BTC $80k risk-on. Bear case: continued quantum divergence and 2-year 4.348% could push to $37 toward $36.26 low. Invalidation: close below $35 or above $45 would negate neutral.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 50% reflects live $40.34 Sep 17 7pm ET after baseline with $39.30 Stockwatch real-time and $37.07-$37.54 MarketBeat same week but conflicting $41.06 -8.47% and $36.75 delayed prints, high vol. Labeling live because $40.34 dated Sep 17 7pm and $39.30 intraday Sep 18 after window start.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $36.20 to $41.80 | 54% | Direction called incorrectly | 44.8 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $34.70 to $40.80 | 47% | Direction called incorrectly | 31.1 |
| Grok 4.5 | $36.00 to $41.00 | 37% | Direction called correctly | 78.6 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $36.50 to $40.50 | 65% | Direction called correctly | 82.2 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $38.50 to $42.50 | 60% | Direction called incorrectly | 14.0 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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