NVDA 1-day forecast by DeepSeek V3

The model's reasoning

(1) Price discovery: I found NVDA trading at $220.33 as of 10:11 a.m. ET on September 18, up 0.45% intraday, from a live quote on Moomoo. The stock closed the prior session at $219.34, up 2.54%, according to Yahoo Finance Taiwan and StockAnalysis.com. The overnight session saw NVDA clear $220.18 and briefly run to $224.51 before settling back near $220.20, based on a TradingView post published September 18.

(2) Market regime: The market is in a relief rally after this week’s FOMC rate hike, with semiconductors leading on renewed AI optimism. NVDA CEO Jensen Huang said on September 17 that chip sales could double over the coming year, helping the stock recover some of last week’s losses, as reported by Business Insider. However, today is the first genuine quadruple witching in roughly six years, which can produce heavy volume, price pinning around large strikes, and sharp mechanical reversals, per Benzinga’s September 18 market preview.

(3) Price range: I used the overnight high of $224.51 and the intraday low of $218.04 as the outer bounds of recent price discovery, then narrowed to a one-day range of $216.50-$224.50. The $219-$220 zone has acted as resistance repeatedly, according to Investing.com’s September 17 technical analysis, while $222 is the next major upside hurdle. A break below $218 would expose the $213-$210 demand area, but I consider that less likely within a single session given the positive catalyst.

(4) Catalysts: The primary scheduled event is quadruple witching, which expires stock index futures, stock index options, individual stock options, and single stock futures simultaneously. Benzinga notes that NVDA’s heavy derivatives activity makes today’s expiration particularly relevant, with positioning around major strikes potentially influencing intraday price behavior. There are no other major scheduled company-specific catalysts inside the window.

(5) Counter-argument: The strongest counter-argument is that NVDA is trading directly into a well-defined resistance zone at $219-$220, and the overnight push above it has not yet been confirmed by a strong close. If expiration-related flows fade and sellers regain control, price could quickly rotate back toward $217-$218 or lower. A sustained break below $216.50 would invalidate the mild bullish short-term bias.

(6) Confidence: I set confidence at 60% because the setup is genuinely two-sided. The positive AI narrative and overnight breakout attempt support a mildly bullish lean, but quadruple witching introduces mechanical noise that can overwhelm fundamentals, and the stock is at resistance rather than in a clear trend. The one-day direction is closer to a coin flip than a high-conviction call.

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How this forecast is measured

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