NVDA 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-09-18: expected range $214.00 to $225.00 at 52% confidence. Settled at $223.91: direction called correctly, score 79.6.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $219.28 |
| Price the model reported | $219.19 |
| Expected range | $214.00 to $225.00 |
| Confidence | 52% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $223.91 |
| Traded range in the window | $218.85 to $224.93 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 79.6 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub reports NVDA Current $219.19 Open $219.35 High $220.89 Low $218.03 Previous Close $219.34 Change -0.15 -0.0684% Sep 18. Finimize reports NVDA closed Sep 18 14:00 US/Eastern. 5-day -4.05% 1-month -2.65% 6-month +21.6% YTD +17.53% 1-year +23.31% beta 2.22 per Finnhub. SPY close $762.57 Sep 17 per MacroTrends +1.1% from $754.20 Sep 16. Fed hike Sep 16 12-0 to 3.75-4.00% per Freedom969. Motley Fool Moneyball $218.29 -0.03%.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Consolidation after hike. NVDA flat -0.06% Sep 18 after -4.05% 5-day. BTC $80,600 +4.73% Sep 18 high $80,989 low $76,259 per Finnhub shows risk-on but semis lag. SOXL bounced Sep 17 +9.9% to $114.31 but NVDA not following. Regime neutral with downside skew if yields stay 4.348% 2-year per Kitco.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $219.19 live Sep 18. Using day range $218.03-$220.89 and $219.34 previous close. Beta 2.22 implies daily ~2.5% ~$5.5. Lower $214 -2.3% below toward $213.9 previous Sep 17 and $212.17 Sep 15 per MacroTrends if hawkish, upper $225 +2.6% toward $236.54 52-week high per Upstox. Symmetric neutral because flat momentum and post-quad witching noise.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 18 14:39 UTC 24h covers Sep 18-19 quad witching Friday close. No NVDA earnings. Warsh comments and October Fed meeting focus per CoinDesk. NVDA option flows high.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case: if SPY $762.57 holds and BTC $80k+ risk-on continues, NVDA could squeeze to $225 above $220.89 high. Bear case: hawkish guidance and 2-year 4.348% could push to $214 if semis fade. Invalidation: close below $212 or above $227 would negate neutral.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 52% reflects live price $219.19 dated Sep 18 after baseline with day range $218.03-$220.89 and close Sep 18 14:00 ET per Finimize same day, but high beta and post-Fed quad witching noisy. Labeling live because quote is same-day after window start.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $214.50 to $228.50 | 59% | Direction called correctly | 80.5 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $214.80 to $228.10 | 54% | Direction called correctly | 79.9 |
| Grok 4.5 | $214.50 to $225.00 | 40% | No directional call | 52.1 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $210.00 to $228.00 | 70% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.3 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $216.50 to $224.50 | 60% | No directional call | 53.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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