NVDA 1-day forecast by Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5's 1-day forecast for NVDA, made 2026-09-18: expected range $214.50 to $225.00 at 40% confidence. Settled at $223.91: no directional call, score 52.1.
| Asset | NVDA |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $219.28 |
| Price the model reported | $219.80 |
| Expected range | $214.50 to $225.00 |
| Confidence | 40% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $223.91 |
| Traded range in the window | $218.85 to $224.93 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 52.1 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Live quotes from MarketWatch ($220.12), Investing.com ($219.94), Chase ($220.17), CNBC ($220.71) and TradeSmith show NVDA trading near $219-$221 as of mid-morning September 18 2026 EDT, up roughly 0.2-0.6% from the prior close of $219.34. Day range so far is approximately $218.03-$220.89 after a +2.54% rebound session on September 17.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: NVDA remains in a broader uptrend from the March 2026 lows near $164, trading in the middle of its 52-week range (high $236.54). Recent action has been volatile with a sharp drop to the low $210s mid-September followed by a multi-day recovery, consistent with high-beta semiconductor rotation within the AI narrative.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to the observed ~$219.80 quote. Recent daily ranges of $3-$8 and realized volatility near 38% annualized support a one-day envelope of roughly ±2-2.5% around the current level, producing the $214.50-$225 band. The range is modestly skewed higher to reflect the ongoing rebound while leaving room for a fade of the prior-day gains.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No major company-specific catalysts identified for the remaining session; residual sector flows around AI infrastructure demand and broader market reaction to yields remain the primary near-term drivers. Next earnings are estimated for late November.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: A decisive break below the recent $217-$218 support cluster on rising volume would invalidate the mild short-term bias and open a retest of the $211-$212 area. Conversely, a sustained push through $222-$225 would strengthen the rebound case beyond the neutral 1-day stance.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence is modest at 40% because the one-day horizon is dominated by noise in a high-volatility name, quote dispersion across sources is a few points, and no high-conviction catalyst is present to override the mixed technical recovery picture.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $214.50 to $228.50 | 59% | Direction called correctly | 80.5 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $214.80 to $228.10 | 54% | Direction called correctly | 79.9 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $214.00 to $225.00 | 52% | Direction called correctly | 79.6 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $210.00 to $228.00 | 70% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.3 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $216.50 to $224.50 | 60% | No directional call | 53.4 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.