IONQ 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-17: expected range $35.00 to $39.00 at 52% confidence. Settled at $38.26: direction called incorrectly, score 4.8.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $39.36 |
| Price the model reported | $36.84 |
| Expected range | $35.00 to $39.00 |
| Confidence | 52% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $38.26 |
| Traded range in the window | $37.99 to $40.94 |
| Result | Direction called incorrectly |
| Score | 4.8 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: MacroTrends reports latest close Sep 16 2026 $36.84 all-time high $82.09 Oct 13 2025 52-week high $84.64 129.8% above. Metamask tokenized Sep 17 $37.37 +0.45% 24h ago Sep 16 $37.20 week ago Sep 10 $38.21 -2.20% month ago Aug 18 $46.31 -19.30%. CoinGecko CAD Sep 17 Thursday CA$52.86 +0.21 +0.4% Sep 16 CA$52.07 +1.4%. Stockwatch Z:IONQ 00:12 EDT Sep 17 price $37.21 change -0.19 -0.5% volume 15.8M. Finnhub warrants IONQ.WS $27.72 open $26.99 high $27.72 low $26.99 previous close $25.23 + beta 3.359.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Consolidation after quantum selloff. Barchart Sep 16 noted IONQ -8.47% vs QBTS -8.39% RGTI -8.60% QTUM -2.35% divergence after Q2 earnings. 1-month -19.3% per Metamask tokenized and -21.87% warrants per Finnhub 1-month. Fed hike Sep 16 12-0 to 3.75-4.00% per Cambridge adds pressure to high-beta unprofitable tech but tokenized +0.45% shows tentative bounce.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $36.84 close Sep 16 per MacroTrends and $37.37 Sep 17 tokenized. Using day range $36.06-$37.65 per Stockwatch and $52.07-$52.86 CAD. Beta 3.35 implies daily sigma ~4% ~$1.5. Lower $35 -5% below captures fade if Warsh hawkish, upper $39 +5.9% captures bounce toward $38.21 week ago high. Symmetric because direction noisy post-Fed.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Window Sep 17 14:23 UTC 24h covers post-FOMC digestion Sep 17-18. No IONQ earnings. Sector sympathy with QBTS RGTI and GraniteShares 2x IONL $12.415 per Finnhub will drive. Warsh remarks after hike eyed.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bull case: oversold bounce after -8.47% and tokenized +0.45% could extend to $39 if yields ease and QTUM recovers. Bear case: continuation toward $34 if hawkish guidance and quantum divergence persists. Invalidation: close above $39.50 or below $34.50 would negate neutral.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 52% reflects live close $36.84 Sep 16 per MacroTrends with corroborating $37.37 Sep 17 Metamask and CA$52.86 Sep 17 CoinGecko same day, but high beta and quantum-specific news add uncertainty. Labeling live because quote is Sep 16 close plus Sep 17 intraday after baseline.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $35.80 to $42.00 | 57% | Direction called incorrectly | 16.6 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $33.65 to $39.80 | 46% | Direction called correctly | 13.3 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $38.00 to $41.00 | 70% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.8 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.