IONQ 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-09: expected range $37.50 to $43.50 at 60% confidence. Settled at $38.13: no directional call, score 51.6.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $40.47 |
| Price the model reported | $40.47 |
| Expected range | $37.50 to $43.50 |
| Confidence | 60% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $38.13 |
| Traded range in the window | $38.10 to $39.92 |
| Result | No directional call |
| Score | 51.6 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Finnhub shows IONQ current price $40.47, open $42.32, high $44.43, low $39.45, previous close $39.52. MacroTrends confirms latest close Sep 08, 2026 is $40.47, all-time high $82.09 Oct 13, 2025, 52-week high $84.64. MarketBeat notes IONQ gap up last $42.8380 volume 9.7M, raised 2026 revenue outlook to $450-460M with SkyWater acquisition from July 31. TipRanks notes Northland raised projected level to $70 from $55 Outperform citing investor day Sep 8 Broad Quantum Advantage.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: IONQ 5-day +3.24%, 1-month -8.91%, 6-month +13.27%, YTD -9.81% per Finnhub. Quantum cohort diverging per Barchart Aug 19: IONQ, Rigetti, D-Wave diverging after Q2 2026. High beta 3.35, $13B+ market cap at 50x sales needs triple-digit growth. Investor day Sep 8 is pivotal catalyst.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored at $40.47, range $37.5-$43.5 skews slightly up ($3.03 upside vs $2.97 downside) reflecting mild bullish investor day expectations. Upper $43.5 near recent intraday high $44.43 and gap up $42.84, lower $37.5 near previous close $39.52 support minus 5%. ATR ~6-8% supports ~$3 band.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: Investor day Sep 8 is primary catalyst, expected to strengthen Broad Quantum Advantage case per Northland. Heavy call buying noted Sep 8 afternoon +4.6% after target raise per FinancialContent. SkyWater integration updates likely.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: $254.7M operating loss through 6 months 2026, valuation stretched 50x revenue, and quantum peers down -8.5% same day per Barchart could drag IONQ if investor day underwhelms. Invalidation is close below $37.5 on high volume with lack of concrete revenue.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: Confidence 60% moderate-high due to concrete catalyst (investor day) and target raise to $70 driving momentum, plus 3.24% 5-day uptrend. Tempered by high beta, YTD negative, and profitability concerns.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | $37.50 to $43.50 | 72% | No directional call | 52.2 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $38.50 to $43.00 | 70% | Direction called incorrectly | 11.2 |
| Grok 4.5 | $37.50 to $43.00 | 35% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.2 |
| DeepSeek V3 | $38.50 to $44.50 | 55% | Direction called incorrectly | 12.9 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $36.60 to $42.50 | 43% | Direction called correctly | 73.1 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.