IONQ 1-day forecast by Muse Spark 1.1
Muse Spark 1.1's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-05: expected range $37.50 to $41.80 at 52% confidence. Settled at $40.46: direction called correctly, score 79.7.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $39.52 |
| Price the model reported | $39.52 |
| Expected range | $37.50 to $41.80 |
| Confidence | 52% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $40.46 |
| Traded range in the window | $39.46 to $44.42 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 79.7 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) What you found, and where: Retrieved live quote from Finnhub search result showing IONQ Current Price 39.52, Open 39.07 High 39.73 Low 38.83 Previous Close 39.02, and MacroTrends confirming latest closing price for IonQ as of Sep 04 2026 is 39.52 with 52-week high 84.64. Transcript Daily note Sep 4 2026 reports shares up 1.1% trading as high as $39.73 last at $39.44 on 12.9M volume vs average 24.6M. Also DailyPolitical Sep 5 note reports IONQ trading up 3.9% Thursday previously closed $37.64.
(2) The current market regime as you read it: Quantum pure-plays in volatile regime - Beta 3.35, large drawdown from Oct 2025 high $82.09, now ~52% off high. Recent news flow dominated by M&A integration (SkyWater $1.8B deal expected to close by end September 2026, Skyloom closed) and board reshaping ahead of investor day at NYSE. Sector split noted by Barchart Aug 19: IONQ -8.47% same day as QTUM -2.35%, showing high beta to risk-off.
(3) Price range justification, with the levels and volatility you are using: Anchored to $39.52 close Sep 4. Using observed intraday range $38.83-39.73 (~2.3% range) and 5-day swing $37.64-41.06 (~8% range from Barchart). For 1-day weekend window (next tradable print Monday), set $37.50 low to include Sep 3 close support and $41.80 high to include recent $41.06 rejection. Slight upside skew due to positive momentum into close and acquisition closure timeline providing floor.
(4) Scheduled or likely catalysts inside the window: No earnings inside 1-day (Q2 2026 already reported). Main catalyst is SkyWater acquisition shareholder vote and regulatory approval expected by end September 2026, plus investor day Tuesday at NYSE flagged in NewsCase article designed to address gap between operational momentum and stock chart. Jobs report Sep 5 may drive beta risk appetite - futures up 0.07% after report per Nasdaq note, supportive for high-beta quantum.
(5) The strongest counter-argument, and what would invalidate your call: Bear case is continued repricing of pure-play quantum valuations - article notes IONQ dropped 42.9% in period while IBM -12.4%, with lack of near-term revenue vs Intel AI capex. Invalidating to upside would be breakout above $41.06 recent high on volume >24M; to downside, close below $37.64 prior close on expanding volume would suggest momentum failure.
(6) Why your confidence is the number it is: 52% - live price anchor is high confidence, but 1-day direction in high-beta small-cap quantum is dominated by noise and market beta. Volume declining 47% below average suggests indecision, supporting NEUTRAL short-term despite mild bullish close. Stated honestly low-medium confidence.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $36.50 to $43.50 | 77% | Direction called correctly | 82.4 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $39.00 to $40.00 | 95% | No directional call | 50.9 |
| Grok 4.5 | $37.00 to $42.50 | 38% | Direction called correctly | 78.4 |
| DeepSeek-R1 | $37.50 to $42.50 | 53% | Direction called correctly | 80.7 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $37.00 to $42.20 | 42% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.6 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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