IONQ 1-day forecast by DeepSeek-R1
DeepSeek-R1's 1-day forecast for IONQ, made 2026-09-05: expected range $37.50 to $42.50 at 53% confidence. Settled at $40.46: direction called correctly, score 80.7.
| Asset | IONQ |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek-R1 |
| Recorded by | Forecastnest |
| Forecast made | |
| Horizon | 1-day (Equity / ETF 1D: the stored target below is authoritative; it may be a session close or an intraday instant.) |
| Window closes | |
| Price when asked | $39.52 |
| Price the model reported | $39.52 |
| Expected range | $37.50 to $42.50 |
| Confidence | 53% |
| Prompt style | No data |
| Status | Settled |
| Actual close | $40.46 |
| Traded range in the window | $39.46 to $44.42 |
| Result | Direction called correctly |
| Score | 80.7 of 100 |
The model's reasoning
(1) Current price and data sources: At the forecast window start (2026-09-05 18:03 UTC), US equity markets are closed for the weekend. The last available quote is from the September 4 regular session close, with IONQ at $39.52, up 1.28% on the day. Intraday range was $38.83-$39.73, and after-hours trading pushed to $39.68-$39.75. The 52-week range is $25.89-$84.64. I have anchored my range to the regular session close of $39.52, as it represents the most reliable settled price available at window start.
(2) Current market regime: IONQ has been consolidating in the $38-$40 range since late August, recovering from its August 28 low near $38.64. The stock remains below its 50-day moving average of $41.66 and 200-day moving average of $43.52, indicating a medium-term downtrend, though short-term momentum has turned mildly positive. The company reported Q2 revenue of $80.05 million, up 287% year-over-year, and raised 2026 revenue guidance to $280-$290 million. However, the company remains unprofitable with a negative P/E ratio of -8.58 and a beta of 2.98, reflecting high volatility. The stock has a market cap of approximately $15.8-$16.0 billion.
(3) Price range justification: I expect IONQ to trade between $37.50 and $42.50 over the next 1-day window (the next trading session on September 8, as September 7 is a US holiday). The lower bound of $37.50 is informed by the $38.83 intraday low from September 4, with additional cushion for potential gap-down risk over the long weekend. The upper bound of $42.50 is informed by the $42.00 level identified in recent after-hours trading and the resistance near the 50-day moving average of $41.66. The range is asymmetric to the upside because the upcoming September 8 investor day is a significant catalyst that could trigger a rally if management delivers a compelling combined guidance following the SkyWater acquisition.
(4) Scheduled catalysts inside the window: The primary catalyst is the investor day on Tuesday, September 8 at the NYSE, where management is expected to provide a combined financial forecast following the $1.8 billion SkyWater acquisition. Analysts expect a multiyear revenue forecast for the combined company, which would be a first for IonQ. The company recently appointed Dr. Eric Ball and Timothy Baxter to its board, adding technology and finance leadership experience. Additionally, public warrants exercisable at $11.50 expire on September 30, 2026, which could create dilution concerns but is outside the 1-day window.
(5) Strongest counter-argument: The bullish case is that IonQ is significantly undervalued relative to Wall Street consensus. Analysts maintain a "Strong Buy" consensus with an average projected level of $65.63-$67.68, implying substantial upside from current levels. The SkyWater acquisition gives IonQ control of its own semiconductor fabrication, potentially accelerating development and creating a vertically integrated quantum platform. A positive surprise at the investor day-such as a strong combined guidance or a major government contract-could trigger a sharp rally toward $42-$44. Conversely, if the investor day fails to impress or if management provides disappointing guidance, the stock could retest the $37-$38 support level. A break below $37.50 would invalidate my bullish 1-day view.
(6) Confidence rationale: My confidence is 53%, reflecting a stock in a consolidation phase with a clear catalyst (September 8 investor day) but uncertain outcome. The 1-day window spans a long holiday weekend, effectively making this a gap-risk assessment for the September 8 session. The stock's beta of 2.98 means it is highly sensitive to broader market moves, creating additional two-way risk. I am more confident in the $37.50-$42.50 range than in the precise path within it, and I acknowledge that a positive investor day outcome could push the stock toward the upper end of the range while a disappointment could drive it toward the lower end.
Other models on the same question
| Model | Expected range | Confidence | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Luna | $36.50 to $43.50 | 77% | Direction called correctly | 82.4 |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | $39.00 to $40.00 | 95% | No directional call | 50.9 |
| Grok 4.5 | $37.00 to $42.50 | 38% | Direction called correctly | 78.4 |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | $37.50 to $41.80 | 52% | Direction called correctly | 79.7 |
| Claude Opus 5 | $37.00 to $42.20 | 42% | Direction called incorrectly | 30.6 |
How this forecast is measured
Sends only the baseline price and the output format; your AI researches the asset itself. Best with a model that can search the web — it can reach news, filings and positioning we do not carry. Costs no market data, at generation or at settlement — you record the closing price yourself when the window shuts. The monthly allowance is what a membership buys, not a data bill.
Every model answering the same prompt is measured from the same starting price over the same window, and scored on its range and its call. How scoring works · All shared research.
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