Multibagger Selection: Grok 4.5's picks
Grok 4.5 picked RCAT, AEVA, BKSY, SLN, SERV with a twelve-month thesis, measured against SPY at each checkpoint.
| Experiment | Multibagger Selection |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | multibagger-selection-v1 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 12-month |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Being measured |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Return | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RCAT | — | 68% | — | — |
| 2 | AEVA | — | 65% | — | — |
| 3 | BKSY | — | 62% | — | — |
| 4 | SLN | — | 60% | — | — |
| 5 | SERV | — | 55% | — | — |
Checkpoints
| Checkpoint | Portfolio return | Return vs SPY | Best peak multiple | Picks reaching 2x |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | -0.67% | -2.57% | 1.10x | 0 |
The model's market view
Small and mid-cap equities show selective strength in defense, autonomy, sensing, and certain biotech niches amid broader market concentration in mega-cap AI leaders. Valuation dispersion remains elevated, creating room for operating inflections and contract ramps to drive asymmetric upside where catalysts are concrete and balance sheets support execution without excessive near-term dilution.
Why each pick
RCAT
Red Cat is scaling production of Black Widow drones under U.S. Army SRR Program of Record and allied contracts while expanding Blue Ops uncrewed surface vessels. Revenue has accelerated sharply with improved gross margins; 2026 guidance of $150-180M implies continued multi-fold growth from a still-modest base. Defense spending priority on autonomous systems and recent order flow provide a verifiable path to operating leverage within 12 months.
AEVA
Aeva’s 4D FMCW LiDAR has secured exclusive production awards with a top European passenger OEM (SOP 2028) and development programs with additional OEMs plus NVIDIA reference status. Parallel optical-connectivity initiative for AI data-center interconnects and industrial/defense wins create multiple near-term revenue ramps. 2026 revenue guidance of $30-36M implies 70-100% growth from a doubling in 2025.
BKSY
BlackSky is transitioning to high-margin Gen-3 satellite imagery and AI analytics subscriptions. Q2 2026 revenue +50% YoY with international growth +200% and positive adjusted EBITDA. Reaffirmed 2026 guidance $130-150M revenue and $12-24M adjusted EBITDA provides clear near-term operating inflection visibility.
SLN
Silence Therapeutics reported positive Phase 2 SANRECO results for divesiran in polycythemia vera in August 2026, demonstrating high response rates and convenient Q12W dosing. Phase 3 initiation planned for 1H 2027 provides a clear, time-bound next catalyst. Cash runway and pipeline optionality support continued development.
SERV
Serve Robotics operates the largest commercial sidewalk delivery robot fleet in the U.S. with expanding partnerships (Grubhub, DoorDash residual, healthcare). Q2 2026 revenue +404% YoY though guidance was revised lower after Uber non-renewal. Utilization improvement and new verticals remain the path to scale.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks |
|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | NVTS, SOUN, EOSE, ACHR, SMR |
| Gemini 3 Pro | MGNI, CWCO, AMPL, SG, QNST |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | PRE, ETON, CNXC, NVTS, UEC |
| DeepSeek | UMAC, MOB, CAPR, ONDS, RZLV |
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