Extreme Movers: GPT-5.1's picks for 2026-10-28
GPT-5.1 picked HRI, BA, XYL, KNSA, SOFI for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: +2.07%. Directions called correctly: 60%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | GPT-5.1 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v11 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-28 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-29 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | +2.07% |
| Directions called correctly | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.29% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HRI | up | +3.43% | +3.43% | 65% | +3.73% | Yes |
| 2 | BA | down | +2.55% | -2.55% | 60% | -2.26% | No |
| 3 | XYL | down | +1.59% | -1.59% | 70% | -1.30% | No |
| 4 | KNSA | up | +8.33% | +8.33% | 65% | +8.63% | Yes |
| 5 | SOFI | up | +2.70% | +2.70% | 60% | +3.00% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equities are digesting a heavy earnings cycle. Tuesday's session featured sharp idiosyncratic moves in industrials, healthcare and energy, while semiconductor and digital-infrastructure names attracted dip-buyers. Wednesday's intraday tape shows consolidation rather than broad risk-off, favouring continuation of strong earnings-driven trends and further pressure on names with disappointing guidance.
Why each pick
HRI
Herc Holdings closed the 27-Oct source session up 22.76% at $156.06 after a clear Q3 beat and a raised full-year outlook. The catalyst is substantive (record rental revenue, EPS $3.91 vs $2.92 consensus). Intraday on 28-Oct the stock is holding near $156.25, suggesting the market is digesting gains rather than reversing. Strong earnings-driven momentum usually carries into the next session. Market cap $5.05B and 20-day average dollar volume roughly $94M (based on ~600K average shares) both clear the floors. Reference price is a 28-Oct intraday quote.
BA
Boeing fell 10.75% on 27-Oct to $168.07 after a Q3 loss and a cut to its full-year aircraft delivery target. The catalyst is substantive and negative, and the stock remains under pressure intraday on 28-Oct at about $166.62 (-0.9%). Post-earnings weakness of this magnitude often sees follow-through selling as analysts revise models. Market cap and 20-day average dollar volume could not be precisely verified from available sources, so those fields are omitted rather than guessed. Reference price is a 28-Oct intraday quote.
XYL
Xylem dropped 14.21% on 27-Oct to $92.86 after missing Q3 revenue estimates and lowering full-year guidance. The negative catalyst is substantive, and the stock is extending losses intraday on 28-Oct at about $91.01. Guidance cuts typically weigh on shares for more than one session. Market cap is $25.27B and 20-day average dollar volume is roughly $200M, comfortably above the floors. Reference price is a 28-Oct intraday quote.
KNSA
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals surged 22.23% on 27-Oct to $89.20 after a Q3 earnings beat and raised FY26 sales guidance. The catalyst is substantive (EPS $0.56 vs $0.37 consensus), and the stock is holding those gains intraday on 28-Oct near $89.40. Strong biotech earnings reactions often extend into the following session as new buyers step in. Market cap is approximately $2.74B and 20-day average dollar volume is roughly $45M, both above the required minimums. Reference price is a 28-Oct intraday quote.
SOFI
SoFi Technologies rose 13.42% on 27-Oct to $16.40 after better-than-expected Q3 results and raised FY26 guidance. The earnings beat is a substantive catalyst, and the stock is consolidating those gains intraday on 28-Oct around $16.43. Profit-momentum stories in fintech tend to attract follow-through buying after a breakout session. Market cap is approximately $18B and 20-day average dollar volume is roughly $866M, well above the floors. Reference price is a 28-Oct intraday quote; market-cap figure is an estimate and therefore not reported as a precise field.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | VRT, WEN, ENPH, FFIV, AXGN | +2.90% | 80% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | VRT, SOFI, AXGN, BA, FFIV | -1.30% | 40% |
| Grok 4.7 | HRI, KNSA, INOD, XYL, BA | +0.71% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | HRI, BA, XYL, KNSA, SOFI | +2.07% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | XYL, HRI, SOFI, KNSA, INOD | +3.39% | 80% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | UCTT, ENPH, INTA, INOD, RAPP | -0.22% | 60% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash High | VRT, ENPH, WEN, UCTT, BSX | +1.50% | 100% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: GPT-5.1's picks for 2026-10-28.
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