Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-28
Muse Spark 1.1 picked VRT, SOFI, AXGN, BA, FFIV for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: -1.30%. Directions called correctly: 40%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v11 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-28 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-29 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | -1.30% |
| Directions called correctly | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.29% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VRT | up | +3.70% | +3.70% | 75% | +3.99% | Yes |
| 2 | SOFI | up | +2.70% | +2.70% | 70% | +3.00% | Yes |
| 3 | AXGN | down | +6.76% | -6.76% | 60% | -6.47% | No |
| 4 | BA | down | +2.55% | -2.55% | 68% | -2.26% | No |
| 5 | FFIV | up | -3.61% | -3.61% | 62% | -3.32% | No |
The model's market view
October 28 2026 session is earnings-driven with wide dispersion. Large-cap AI infrastructure names are beating and raising guidance while aerospace and legacy tech are missing on production and outlook. S&P 500 +0.1% and Nasdaq +0.4% intraday with advancers edging decliners. Top movers are substantive earnings catalysts, not speculative memes, so momentum may carry but overbought gainers risk intraday profit-taking and oversold losers risk bounce. Overall bias is selective continuation for strong beats, reversal for panic selloffs on mixed results.
Why each pick
VRT
Ranked #7 top gainer Oct 28 on MetaCap list at +13.82% to $237.40 intraday from prior close $208.56. Catalyst is substantive: Q3 2026 earnings beat $2.21 vs $1.82 consensus (+21.43% surprise), revenue $4.31B +61% YoY vs guide, organic orders doubled, full-year guidance raised by $650M. Sources: Zacks reports earnings beat and MarketBeat confirms Oct 28 earnings date. Reference price is delayed intraday quote Oct 28 10:18 AM EDT, freshest available at answer time, not yesterday close. Market cap $91.39B and avg daily traded value $1.60B both exceed $1B and $20M floors. Thesis: continuation up as AI data center infrastructure demand accelerating, CEO citing largest buildout. Risk: valuation at ~55x PE and overbought after 16% premarket move.
SOFI
Best performer among 42 large caps tracked on AgentFlare Oct 28 at +13.69% to $16.44. Catalyst is substantive: Q3 2026 record revenue $1.39B (+44% YoY) vs $1.28B expected, EPS $0.18 vs $0.17, adjusted EBITDA $470M, raised 2026 guidance to $5.04B revenue and $0.61 EPS and introduced 2027 guidance $6.4B revenue. Sources: ABC Money, TalkMarkets, and The Distributed report Oct 28 surge. Reference price is intraday regular session Oct 28 from AgentFlare list. Market cap $21.17B from same list exceeds floor. Avg daily traded value $1.26B from Finnhub exceeds floor. Thesis: continuation up on guidance raise and cross-sell growth. Risk: still down -37% YTD and resistance at $16.75, profit-taking possible.
AXGN
Ranked #2 top gainer Oct 28 on MetaCap at +22.61% to $45.93 from prior close $37.46. Catalyst is substantive: Q3 2026 revenue $75.8M +26.2% YoY, EPS $0.21 vs $0.14 consensus +50% surprise, maintained 2026 outlook at least $290M. Sources: Zacks reports beat, Seeking Alpha and GlobeNewswire confirm results Oct 28. Reference price is current price from Finnhub matching MetaCap intraday. Market cap $2.69B from MetaCap exceeds floor. Avg daily traded value $41.84M from Finnhub exceeds floor. Thesis: reversal down as small-cap surgical solutions stock shows 30.33% 5-day return and may face profit-taking after sharp move despite beat. Risk: continued momentum on raised estimates could extend rally.
BA
Worst performer among 42 large caps on AgentFlare Oct 28 at -10.55% to $168.45, closed prior day Oct 27 at $168.18 down -10.69% per Finnhub. Catalyst is substantive: Q3 2026 revenue $24.19B vs $24.39B consensus, loss -$0.34 vs -$0.255 expected, production delays push 737 ramp to 2027, worst day since June 2020, free cash flow cut to ~$2B. Sources: OQLIV, AeroHaber, and FX Leaders report crash on earnings miss. Reference price is regular session price from AgentFlare list Oct 28, intraday low $165.01, freshest available. Market cap $132.93B and avg daily traded value $1.54B from Finnhub exceed floors. Thesis: continuation down as confidence eroded and backlog execution risk persists. Risk: oversold bounce after hitting 52-week low since May 2025.
FFIV
Ranked #3 top loser Oct 28 on MetaCap at -16.75% to $382.40 from prior close $459.36. Catalyst is substantive but mixed: Q4 2026 EPS $4.42 beat $4.26 by $0.16 (+4.3%), revenue +13% with systems +29% and AI bookings >$100M, but outlook disappointed investors plus $1.5B buyback announced Oct 27. Sources: Zacks reports earnings beat with systems growth, MarketBeat and The Markets Daily report buyback. Reference price is intraday price from MetaCap losers list Oct 28 10:18 AM EDT. Market cap $21.65B from MetaCap exceeds floor. Avg daily traded value $258.01M from Finnhub exceeds floor. Thesis: reversal up as selloff on guidance may be overdone given beat, AI momentum, and buyback support. Risk: further guidance cuts could drive continuation down.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | VRT, WEN, ENPH, FFIV, AXGN | +2.90% | 80% |
| Grok 4.7 | HRI, KNSA, INOD, XYL, BA | +0.71% | 40% |
| GPT-5.1 | HRI, BA, XYL, KNSA, SOFI | +2.07% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | HRI, BA, XYL, KNSA, SOFI | +2.07% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | XYL, HRI, SOFI, KNSA, INOD | +3.39% | 80% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | UCTT, ENPH, INTA, INOD, RAPP | -0.22% | 60% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash High | VRT, ENPH, WEN, UCTT, BSX | +1.50% | 100% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-28.
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