Extreme Movers: Grok 4's picks for 2026-10-14
Grok 4 picked PBF, PARR, CVI, FUN, JNJ for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: +2.12%. Directions called correctly: 60%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v11 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-14 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-15 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | +2.12% |
| Directions called correctly | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.79% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PBF | up | -2.49% | -2.49% | 68% | -1.70% | No |
| 2 | PARR | up | -2.46% | -2.46% | 65% | -1.67% | No |
| 3 | CVI | up | +0.55% | +0.55% | 62% | +1.34% | Yes |
| 4 | FUN | down | -11.65% | +11.65% | 60% | +12.44% | Yes |
| 5 | JNJ | up | +3.36% | +3.36% | 58% | +4.15% | Yes |
The model's market view
Source session October 13 saw modest index declines with energy refiners leading gainers on elevated crude prices and supply concerns while healthcare and semiconductor names lagged on earnings and competitive pressures. Expect selective continuation in energy strength and selective mean-reversion in oversold large-cap defensives into the next session.
Why each pick
PBF
PBF closed the source session up 7.23 percent on sector-wide refining strength tied to higher crude and crack-spread optimism; continuation higher is favored as oil prices remain elevated and the name trades with strong volume. Reference price is the latest intraday quote near the open of October 14; market-cap and dollar-volume floors confirmed at source close. Catalyst is substantive sector momentum rather than company-specific news.
PARR
PARR advanced 8.13 percent in the source session alongside peer refiners on the same crude-price tailwind; continuation is the base case given persistent energy leadership and liquid trading. Latest available price used for reference; all liquidity and size screens passed at the October 13 close. Catalyst is substantive sector rotation into refining.
CVI
CVI rose 7.15 percent with the refining group on October 13; continuation expected while crude remains firm and relative volume stays healthy. Reference price reflects the most recent quote obtainable on October 14; market-cap and average dollar-volume thresholds met. Catalyst is the same substantive energy-sector move.
FUN
FUN dropped 14.43 percent in the source session after a fatal roller-coaster incident raised liability and operational concerns; continuation lower is favored as the news is material and volume was elevated. Latest intraday price used; size and liquidity screens cleared. Catalyst is substantive company-specific negative event.
JNJ
JNJ fell 5.73 percent on October 13 despite an adjusted earnings beat after MedTech sales missed and a large talc-related charge hit GAAP results; a partial reversal higher is expected as the miss is largely already priced and the name is a high-quality defensive. Reference price is the freshest available quote; all screening criteria satisfied. Catalyst is substantive earnings detail with some speculative over-reaction component.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3 Pro | BLK, STT, BAC, ACN, FAST | -1.18% | 20% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | VLO, ORCL, AMAT, JNJ, C | +2.14% | 60% |
| Perplexity | BAC, PGR, DELL, UNH, GFS | -0.33% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | FUN, PARR, PBF, RCUS, CVI | +1.20% | 20% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | JNJ, DPZ, INFY, GTLB, MU | +1.94% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | PARR, PBF, INFY, AMAT, GTLB | +1.67% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Grok 4's picks for 2026-10-14.
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