Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-14
Muse Spark 1.1 picked VLO, ORCL, AMAT, JNJ, C for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: +2.14%. Directions called correctly: 60%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v11 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-14 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-15 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | +2.14% |
| Directions called correctly | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.79% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VLO | up | -0.62% | -0.62% | 68% | +0.17% | No |
| 2 | ORCL | down | -1.46% | +1.46% | 62% | +2.25% | Yes |
| 3 | AMAT | down | -7.64% | +7.64% | 65% | +8.43% | Yes |
| 4 | JNJ | up | +3.36% | +3.36% | 60% | +4.15% | Yes |
| 5 | C | up | -1.14% | -1.14% | 58% | -0.35% | No |
The model's market view
Oct 13 session was risk-off into CPI: energy/refiners outperformed on fuel tightness while tech equipment and defensives sold on rate fears. S&P -0.02% Nasdaq -0.15%. Expect mean reversion in crowded tech shorts and fade in energy spike into CPI print Oct 14.
Why each pick
VLO
Top gainer Oct 13 +4.69% close $456.46 on tight refining margins. Source session catalyst substantive: refinery capacity headlines. Ranking #1 large-cap gainer. Continuation up chosen as momentum in energy sector with crude bid. Reference price is Oct 14 intraday delayed quote 451.88 down 1.0% intraday, so slightly stale vs open but still latest available. Meets price >=5, market cap 124.89B and avg dollar volume ~1.5B >20M.
ORCL
Gainer Oct 13 +4.23% to $143.20 on hardware security collaboration and AI cloud positioning. Substantive but speculative upside into CPI. Ranking #2 large-cap gainer. Reversal down expected as +4.23% was counter-trend in falling Nasdaq and intraday Oct 14 already showing -6.97% to 133.205 indicating fade. Uses Oct 14 intraday current price as reference.
AMAT
Top loser Oct 13 -6.69% to $464.24 on investor day without industry spending forecast. Catalyst substantive negative for equipment. Ranking top large-cap loser. Continuation down expected as guidance gap weighs and sector weak 7-day. Reference price Oct 14 intraday 455.565 down another -1.86% showing follow-through. Market cap 402.38B and avg volume ~2.7B passes filters.
JNJ
Loser Oct 13 -5.73% to $248.90 on earnings reaction despite YTD +22%. Catalyst substantive but overreaction in defensive pharma into CPI. Ranking #2 large-cap loser. Reversal up expected as defensive bid returns with inflation expectations at 4.7%. Reference price Oct 14 intraday 251.445 up +1.14% vs prior close, indicating intraday reversal already starting, used as latest quote.
C
Loser Oct 13 -5.60% on bank earnings digestion ahead of CPI. Turnover 2.6B. Catalyst substantive: loan growth and trading income concerns. Ranking large-cap loser. Reversal up chosen as banks oversold vs 4.1B turnover and JPM peers stabilizing, CPI may relieve rate pressure. Reference price Oct 14 intraday 122.0 down -2.03% but near support. Market cap 217.46B passes, avg dollar volume ~1.8B >20M.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3 Pro | BLK, STT, BAC, ACN, FAST | -1.18% | 20% |
| Grok 4 | PBF, PARR, CVI, FUN, JNJ | +2.12% | 60% |
| Perplexity | BAC, PGR, DELL, UNH, GFS | -0.33% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | FUN, PARR, PBF, RCUS, CVI | +1.20% | 20% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | JNJ, DPZ, INFY, GTLB, MU | +1.94% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | PARR, PBF, INFY, AMAT, GTLB | +1.67% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-14.
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