Extreme Movers: Grok 4's picks for 2026-10-22
Grok 4 picked BHVN, TTMI, CRS, SPOT, POOL for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: -0.04%. Directions called correctly: 60%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v11 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-22 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-23 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | -0.04% |
| Directions called correctly | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.83% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BHVN | up | -8.48% | -8.48% | 68% | -7.64% | No |
| 2 | TTMI | down | +0.30% | -0.30% | 62% | +0.53% | No |
| 3 | CRS | down | -3.02% | +3.02% | 60% | +3.85% | Yes |
| 4 | SPOT | up | +1.38% | +1.38% | 58% | +2.21% | Yes |
| 5 | POOL | up | +4.20% | +4.20% | 55% | +5.03% | Yes |
The model's market view
Mid-session on 22 Oct 2026 shows sharp dispersion driven by earnings and regulatory news. Biotech and select industrials with positive catalysts are extending gains while several earnings reporters in electronics and specialty metals are seeing large downside reactions despite mixed beats, consistent with elevated valuations and guidance scrutiny. Liquidity screens favor larger names with clear catalysts over micro-cap noise.
Why each pick
BHVN
FDA acceptance of Vyglxia (troriluzole) NDA resubmission for spinocerebellar ataxia with Q1 2027 goal date and planned advisory committee is a substantive regulatory catalyst driving the +30%+ session move. Prior session change was already positive; continuation higher is favored on momentum and pipeline re-rating, though biotech volatility and eventual AdCom risk remain. Used live intraday quote near 10:20 AM EDT (minutes stale).
TTMI
Q3 results beat on EPS and revenue with strong 2027 preliminary sales outlook of $6.5-6.75B, yet the stock is selling off sharply intraday. The large negative previous_change_percent reflects profit-taking or guidance interpretation after a strong prior run; continuation lower is the base case given the magnitude of the reaction and sector pressure. Used live intraday quote near 10:20 AM EDT.
CRS
Fiscal Q1 2027 EPS beat but revenue missed; sequential operating income soft and free-cash-flow negative. The large downside move is earnings-driven and substantive; continuation lower favored as the market digests the mixed print against elevated valuation. Used live intraday quote near 10:20 AM EDT.
SPOT
Q3 results released pre-open showing solid revenue; shares are extending the positive previous_change_percent with high relative volume. Substantive earnings catalyst supports continuation higher in a risk-on tape for growth names. Used live intraday quote near 10:20 AM EDT.
POOL
Q3 earnings released today; shares are extending the prior positive move on the print. Substantive results catalyst favors continuation higher given the liquidity and institutional ownership profile. Used live intraday quote near 10:20 AM EDT.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | APLD, T, NFLX, SMCI, ZS | +0.85% | 40% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | DXCM, CRL, SMCI, NFLX, RCUS | -0.82% | 20% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | NET, DELL, NFLX, AVEX, RCUS | +1.55% | 80% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | SMCI, NFLX, T, LAD, RCUS | -0.30% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | LAD, SMCI, T, NFLX, CRL | -1.43% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Grok 4's picks for 2026-10-22.
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