Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-25
Muse Spark 1.1 picked MPWR, SHOP, STX, ADBE, COST for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: -2.17%. Directions called correctly: 0%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v9 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-25 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-28 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | -2.17% |
| Directions called correctly | 0% |
| Benchmark return | +0.01% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MPWR | up | -0.72% | -0.72% | 70% | -0.73% | No |
| 2 | SHOP | up | -2.85% | -2.85% | 65% | -2.85% | No |
| 3 | STX | up | -2.41% | -2.41% | 62% | -2.42% | No |
| 4 | ADBE | up | -3.98% | -3.98% | 60% | -3.98% | No |
| 5 | COST | down | +0.90% | -0.90% | 58% | -0.90% | No |
The model's market view
Source session Sep 25 2026 Nasdaq mixed but with clear outlier moves: Monolithic Power +8.06% and Shopify +7.12% led Nasdaq gainers, Seagate +4.85% also top gainer, while Adobe -4.52% led losers. Costco +2.48% was strong on earnings beat. Market closed near flat, so next session Sep 28 likely sees continuation in high-beta AI/storage names and mean reversion in oversold software. Selecting five large-cap verified movers to avoid low-price low-cap exclusion.
Why each pick
MPWR
Top Nasdaq gainer Sep 25 +8.06% per HDFC Sky report. MPWR intraday live 1352.83 on Sep 25, market cap 66.48B confirms >1B exclusion passes. Catalyst is substantive: AI power management demand and data-center power design wins driving momentum. Continuation hypothesis: previous_change_percent positive, so continuation means direction up. Expect follow-through Sep 28 as AI power theme persists. Price quoted is live Sep 25 from stockanalysis, not yesterday close. Risks: high P/E 81, overbought near 52-week high 1714.
SHOP
Second top Nasdaq gainer Sep 25 +7.12% same source as MPWR. SHOP price 145.20 live Sep 25 from Tickertape, market cap 183.18B from stockanalysis confirms large cap. Catalyst appears speculative rotation into e-commerce platform on rate cut hopes, not specific earnings. Continuation up expected as momentum carries into Sep 28 open. Previous_change_percent positive so continuation is up. Live intraday quote used, not stale close. Risks: retail spending soft, valuation high, reversal possible if market fades.
STX
Seagate listed as top Nasdaq gainer +4.85% Sep 25 per HDFC Sky, consistent with storage supercycle with Micron. Finnhub current 906.74, high 924.36, previous close 905.92, market cap 179.79B per Marketbeat confirms large cap. Catalyst substantive: nearline HDD demand for AI data lakes, 5-day +17.48% shows continuation. Hypothesis continuation up because previous_change_percent positive. Intraday live quote Sep 25 used. Risks: cyclical memory, high price near $1145 high, profit-taking.
ADBE
Top Nasdaq loser Sep 25 -4.52% per HDFC Sky, Adobe price 239.57 intraday from Finnhub, market cap 92.4B from stockanalysis, so passes exclusion. Previous_change_percent negative, so reversal hypothesis means direction up. Catalyst is AI disruption fears in creative software, speculative overreaction; oversold bounce expected Sep 28 as stock near 52-week low 190. Finnhub quote is live Sep 25, not yesterday close. Risks: continued AI competition, 5-day -7.06% downtrend may continue, so continuation down is possible.
COST
Costco up +2.4864% Sep 25 on Q4 earnings beat reported Sep 24 after close, per Finnhub current 918.77 change +22.29. Market cap 398.87B confirms large cap. Previous_change_percent positive +2.48% so reversal hypothesis means direction down: expecting fade of earnings pop on Sep 28 after two-day run. Catalyst substantive: sales rose 11.2% to $93.9B, EPS $6.75 beat $6.54, but includes $0.15 tariff refund one-off. Intraday live quote used. Risks: membership model defensive, may continue up instead of reversing.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | AKAM, SCHL, ZS, WTTR, SNX | -2.14% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | APUS, STAK, SFIX, GLND, SRZN | -5.05% | 20% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | MTC, SNX, ARM, FSLR, CRWV | -2.54% | 40% |
| Perplexity | AKAM, DDOG, CNET, MGLD, WYY | -2.92% | 20% |
| Grok 4.5 | AKAM, AESI, APUS, WYY, KITT | -2.73% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | INLF, AKAM, GLND, FSLR, GEN | +2.98% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-25.
ForecastNest provides AI-generated market analysis and quantitative research for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.