Extreme Movers: Claude Sonnet 5.5's picks for 2026-11-02
Claude Sonnet 5.5 picked INTC, SNDK, CBOE, COIN, ORCL for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: -0.39%. Directions called correctly: 40%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Claude Sonnet 5.5 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v11 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-11-02 |
| Measured to | 2026-11-03 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | -0.39% |
| Directions called correctly | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.82% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | INTC | up | -3.12% | -3.12% | 55% | -2.30% | No |
| 2 | SNDK | up | +0.26% | +0.26% | 52% | +1.08% | Yes |
| 3 | CBOE | up | -0.40% | -0.40% | 50% | +0.42% | No |
| 4 | COIN | up | +2.63% | +2.63% | 48% | +3.45% | Yes |
| 5 | ORCL | down | +1.34% | -1.34% | 45% | -0.52% | No |
The model's market view
Friday Oct 30 was a heavy risk-off session. Tech and crypto sold off on AI-capex worries after Alphabet and Amazon results, Intel's guidance cut, and the $6.3B Binance hack. Monday morning looks like a partial bounce: index futures are higher (QQQ up about 0.8% premarket), oil is falling on reports of US-Iran diplomacy, and memory stocks are up about 2% premarket. Apple and Palantir report after Monday's close, AMD and Arista report Tuesday, and the US midterm elections are on Nov 3. My picks lean toward a rebound in the worst-hit Friday losers (INTC, SNDK, COIN) and one continuation long (CBOE), with one continuation short (ORCL) as a partial hedge. Data limits: I could not retrieve a full closing top-gainers/losers table, so candidates come from reported movers. Several reference prices are Friday intraday prints, not live Monday quotes. Market-cap and 20-day dollar-volume fields are omitted wherever I could not confirm them. Where I give supporting figures in the rationales, they are cited as such.
Why each pick
INTC
Source session was Fri Oct 30. Intel closed Oct 29 at $92.07 and fell about 29.84% on Oct 30, its worst day since 1974, to roughly $64.6. This follows a Q4 guide of $15B-$16B revenue against about $17B expected, plus a PC slump and a plant accident. The Q3 report itself was a beat: adjusted EPS $0.52 vs $0.40 expected, revenue $16.5B (up 21%), and data-center sales up 78%. BofA cut the stock to Neutral with a $100 target. The catalyst is substantive, but the one-day collapse looks over-extended relative to a quarter that beat. Hypothesis: reversal, so direction up. Monday premarket was about +0.8% (Stocktwits), and index futures are higher. Market cap is about $343.5B at roughly $64.70 (Ynet). The 30-day average volume was 106.8M shares as of Oct 23 (Gotrade), so the dollar-volume floor is cleared by a wide margin, but I did not find a 20-day dollar-volume figure and omitted that field. The reference price is an Oct 30 intraday print near the close, not a live Monday quote. Risks: analyst downgrades, continued capitulation after a guidance cut, and AI-capex fears.
SNDK
Source session was Fri Oct 30. Sandisk closed Oct 29 at $1,330.05 and fell about 12% on Oct 30, trading near $1,167 midday, despite a clean beat. Revenue was $11.03B and adjusted EPS $49.51 vs about $46-47 expected. Q2 revenue guidance of $12.2B-$12.6B was in line, and it announced an 8-for-1 split effective Nov 19, after this window. The drop looks like sell-the-news and sector de-grossing in memory and AI names. That is more positioning than fundamental damage, so I rate the catalyst as speculative. Hypothesis: reversal, so direction up. CNBC reported memory names (Micron, Sandisk, Western Digital) up about 2% premarket Monday. previous_change_percent is the approximately 12% intraday figure reported by CNBC and TIKR; I did not confirm the final closing percentage. The reference price is the Oct 30 midday print from TIKR, not a live Monday quote. Market cap was $205.7B at $1,404.77 on Oct 28 and 30-day average volume was about 8.5M shares (Gotrade), so the floors are not in doubt even after the drop. I omitted the market-cap and 20-day dollar-volume fields because I could not confirm them at the source-session close. Risks: further AI-capex fear, NAND pricing worries, and heavy insider selling.
CBOE
Source session was Fri Oct 30. Cboe rose about 6.77% after Q3 results. Net revenue grew 18% to $712.2M. Record diluted EPS was $4.08, and adjusted EPS of $3.63 beat the $3.43 consensus. It lowered 2026 opex guidance, raised its organic revenue growth target to mid-teens, and extended the exclusive S&P license through 2051. Its buyback authorization also rose by $550M. The catalyst is substantive, which favors post-earnings continuation. Volatility-product demand should also stay supported by event risk around the Nov 3 midterms. Hypothesis: continuation, so direction up. The Monday premarket quote was $325.42, down 3.01% (Chartmill), so the reference price is a premarket print and I expect some give-back before the window starts. Risks: that fade extending, part of the EPS lift coming from a lower tax rate, falling volatility if risk-on continues, and options market-share loss. Market cap and 20-day dollar volume were not retrieved, so those fields are omitted. Cboe is an S&P 500 constituent, so I do not expect the floors to bind, but I did not verify that.
COIN
Source session was Fri Oct 30. Coinbase fell about 12.5% intraday, to $140.46 from a $160.59 prior close (PrimeXBT), touching a two-year low after the Binance hack of about $6.3B and Q3 results. Net income was about $719M, helped by crypto mark-to-market, but adjusted net income was only $78M. Revenue fell about 35% and transaction revenue about 44%. The move mixes company-specific weakness with crypto-sector sentiment, so I rate the catalyst as largely speculative and sentiment-driven. Hypothesis: reversal, so direction up, on a risk-on bounce (oil falling, futures higher) and a possible Bitcoin stabilization. previous_change_percent is the intraday figure; I did not confirm the final closing percentage. The reference price is the Oct 30 intraday print from PrimeXBT, not a live Monday quote. I found no Monday quote for COIN. I omitted the market-cap and dollar-volume fields because I could not confirm them at the Oct 30 close. Earlier 2026 snapshots showed a market cap around $40B and 30-day average volume around 10M shares, which would clear the floors, but those were not taken at the source-session close. Risks: Bitcoin breaking lower, hack contagion, and weak trading revenue.
ORCL
Source session was Fri Oct 30. Oracle fell about 6.37% (Chartmill), among the larger S&P 500 decliners, and was down another 2.7% in Monday premarket at $127.14. I could not confirm a company-specific catalyst. It appears to be the AI-infrastructure funding and free-cash-flow concern that followed Alphabet's negative free cash flow and Amazon's cash burn, so I rate the catalyst as speculative and sector-driven. Hypothesis: continuation, so direction down, as a partial hedge against my rebound-heavy long picks. Risks: a broad Monday rebound in AI names, short covering after a large drawdown, and the market-wide bounce that futures are signaling. The reference price is a Monday premarket print, so it may differ from the 9:57 ET start. Market cap and 20-day dollar volume were not retrieved, so those fields are omitted. Oracle is a very large S&P 500 company, so I do not expect the floors to bind, but I did not verify it. Weakest of the five on data quality.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | REGN, INTC, GPN, BFAM, RDDT | +1.43% | 80% |
| GPT-6.1 Sol | REGN, INTC, RDDT, SNDK, GPN | +0.78% | 80% |
| Perplexity | INTC, REGN, RBLX, GPN, GDDY | +0.67% | 60% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | INTC, RDDT, ON, SOLV, ATEC | +0.79% | 80% |
| Grok 4.7 | FDXF, RDDT, INTC, REGN, GPN | +0.62% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | REGN, CPRI, COIN, INTC, GPN | +0.54% | 60% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | INTC, REGN, RBLX, RDDT, GPN | +1.10% | 80% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | REGN, FDXF, GPN, INTC, RDDT | +0.88% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Claude Sonnet 5.5's picks for 2026-11-02.
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