Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-10
Muse Spark 1.1 picked AVAV, COO, CAL, ADBE, ORCL for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: -2.20%. Directions called correctly: 60%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v6 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-09 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-10 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | -2.20% |
| Directions called correctly | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.60% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AVAV | up | +4.45% | +4.45% | 70% | +5.05% | Yes |
| 2 | COO | up | -14.67% | -14.67% | 68% | -14.07% | No |
| 3 | CAL | down | -2.22% | +2.22% | 66% | +2.82% | Yes |
| 4 | ADBE | down | -2.37% | +2.37% | 67% | +2.97% | Yes |
| 5 | ORCL | up | -5.38% | -5.38% | 72% | -4.78% | No |
The model's market view
Source Sep 9 was volatile into earnings: AVAV -5.36% to $140.80 ahead of Q1 after close, COO -6.22% to $63.48 ahead of Q3 after close, CAL -3.61% to $11.74 after Q2 sales below estimates but stock soared intraday 5.2% to $12.66, ADBE -0.93% to $254.86 down 26% YTD into Sep 10 earnings, ORCL -0.55% to $161.63 off ATH $324.63 Sep 2025 down 55%. All >$1B market cap except CAL small but >$1B per Morningstar $1.17B. For target Sep 10, expect reversal up for oversold decliners AVAV and COO after actual prints, continuation down for CAL and ADBE on weak guides, and reversal up for ORCL on backlog optimism.
Why each pick
AVAV
AVAV closed $140.80 Sep 9 down -5.36% from $148.78 previous, 5-day -5.09% YTD -41.79%. Market cap $7.35B. Catalyst substantive: Q1 FY27 earnings scheduled after close Sep 9 after market close covering Aug 1 data, defense drone demand. Prior decliner suggests oversold into print. Expect reversal up Sep 10 if beat on $0.30 $459.9M consensus, continuation of beat would drive up. Speculative defense spending.
COO
COO closed $63.48 Sep 9 down -6.2195% from $67.69 previous, 5-day -9.43% YTD -22.55%. Market cap >$8B. Catalyst substantive: Q3 earnings scheduled after close Sep 9 $1.11 EPS $1.1B rev. Medical instruments defensive but selloff into earnings suggests fear of guide cut. Expect reversal up Sep 10 if EPS $1.05-1.09 guide holds, oversold bounce.
CAL
CAL closed $11.74 Sep 9 -3.61% per Barchart, previous close $12.03 Sep 8, reported Q2 sales below estimates but stock soared 5.2% to $12.66 immediately after per Wedbush. Market cap $1.17B per Morningstar. Catalyst substantive: footwear sales below analyst estimates. Prior gainer reversal? Actually down Sep 9, but intraday spike suggests speculative short cover. Expect continuation down Sep 10 as guide low-single-digit sales up and 13 opens 26 closes indicates weakness.
ADBE
ADBE closed $254.86 Sep 9 -0.9329% from $257.26, 5-day -12.95% YTD -27.18%. Market cap $101.32B per Robinhood. Catalyst substantive: Q3 FY26 earnings scheduled after close Sep 10, Firefly AI monetization concerns, down 26% into earnings per Motley Fool. Prior decliner but trend down suggests continuation down Sep 10 as anticipation of AI threat weighs, before print.
ORCL
ORCL closed $161.63 Sep 9 -0.55% from $162.52, 5-day +8.39% YTD -17.07% off ATH $324.63 Sep 2025 down 55% per Motley Fool. Market cap $457B. Catalyst substantive: Q1 FY27 earnings scheduled Sep 10 after close with $638B RPO backlog and 58-64% OCI growth guide, Mizuho Outperform $320. Prior slight decliner but 5-day up shows momentum. Expect reversal up Sep 10 as anticipation builds for cloud backlog beat.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | TTAN, BRZE, CASY, META, VRT | -1.39% | 20% |
| Grok 4.5 | NET, META, TTAN, CASY, SIG | +0.02% | 20% |
| Claude Opus 5 | COO, AVAV, SIG, CASY, BKNG | +3.04% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-10.
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