Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-10
Grok 4.5 picked NET, META, TTAN, CASY, SIG for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: +0.02%. Directions called correctly: 20%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v6 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-09 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-10 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | +0.02% |
| Directions called correctly | 20% |
| Benchmark return | -0.60% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NET | up | -0.96% | -0.96% | 62% | -0.36% | No |
| 2 | META | up | -1.42% | -1.42% | 60% | -0.82% | No |
| 3 | TTAN | up | -1.94% | -1.94% | 58% | -1.34% | No |
| 4 | CASY | up | -0.22% | -0.22% | 55% | +0.38% | No |
| 5 | SIG | down | -4.65% | +4.65% | 53% | +5.25% | Yes |
The model's market view
September 9 featured sharp idiosyncratic moves amid a lower broad market, with energy and select AI infrastructure names advancing while post-earnings software and retail names sold off hard. Residual momentum and mean-reversion setups are both present for the next session.
Why each pick
NET
Cloudflare rose more than 10% on a concrete OpenAI security partnership announcement, a substantive AI infrastructure catalyst. Continuation of the positive reaction is favored into the next session given the validation of its positioning. Risks include profit-taking after a large single-day move.
META
Meta advanced 6.55% on the launch of its Muse AI assistant, described as the start of a product cycle. The substantive AI catalyst supports continuation. Risks are high valuation and any broader tech rotation.
TTAN
ServiceTitan plunged nearly 30% after reporting results and issuing weaker guidance. The magnitude of the decline creates a potential short-term reversal setup as oversold conditions meet any stabilization in software sentiment. Risks include further guidance-related selling.
CASY
Casey’s General Stores fell more than 14% following its earnings report. The large decline after a results-driven move favors a potential reversal as the initial emotional reaction fades. Risks are continued pressure if guidance commentary remains a focus.
SIG
Signet Jewelers surged nearly 24% on strong earnings and guidance. The magnitude of the gain raises the odds of a partial reversal or profit-taking at the open of the next session. Risks are further upside if the fundamental surprise continues to attract buyers.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | TTAN, BRZE, CASY, META, VRT | -1.39% | 20% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | AVAV, COO, CAL, ADBE, ORCL | -2.20% | 60% |
| Claude Opus 5 | COO, AVAV, SIG, CASY, BKNG | +3.04% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-10.
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