Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-23
Grok 4.5 picked MRNA, INTC, AMD, AKAM, WBD for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: -0.34%. Directions called correctly: 40%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v9 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-23 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-24 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | -0.34% |
| Directions called correctly | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.69% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MRNA | up | +0.51% | +0.51% | 55% | +1.20% | Yes |
| 2 | INTC | up | +1.19% | +1.19% | 54% | +1.87% | Yes |
| 3 | AMD | up | -0.33% | -0.33% | 52% | +0.36% | No |
| 4 | AKAM | up | -3.01% | -3.01% | 50% | -2.32% | No |
| 5 | WBD | up | -0.06% | -0.06% | 48% | +0.62% | No |
The model's market view
Semiconductor and biotech names led the prior session with double-digit gains amid AI and sector momentum. Residual strength in these leaders can support continuation, while high-volatility names carry reversal risk if profit-taking emerges.
Why each pick
MRNA
Moderna posted a +12.3 percent gain in the source session on strong biotech/AI-related flows. Continuation of momentum is plausible given recent multi-day strength. Risk is rapid mean-reversion after the large move. Reference price is the latest available intraday quote.
INTC
Intel rose +12.1 percent in the source session on semiconductor strength. Continuation is supported by multi-week recovery momentum. Risk includes high beta and potential digestion. Reference price is the latest available quote.
AMD
AMD gained +9.9 percent in the source session amid AI semiconductor leadership. Continuation of the multi-day advance is the base case. Risk is profit-taking after consecutive strong sessions. Reference price is the latest available quote.
AKAM
Akamai led the source session with a +12.3 percent advance. Continuation is plausible on residual tech strength. Risk is elevated volatility and mean-reversion. Reference price is the latest available quote.
WBD
Warner Bros. Discovery rose +10.8 percent in the source session. Continuation of media/tech flows is the hypothesis. Risk includes sector rotation and profit-taking. Reference price is the latest available quote.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | MPWR, SHOP, MU, ADBE, CSCO | -0.49% | 20% |
| Claude Opus 5 | VKTX, SCHW, SNDK, PSKY, NYT | -1.69% | 60% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | MU, PLTR, SCHW, JPM, AMP | -0.25% | 60% |
| GPT-6 | IMCC, CMPX, VKTX, GRML, MAZE | -9.71% | 20% |
| DeepSeek | MRNA, PLTR, IONQ, BYND, JAGX | +10.62% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-23.
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