Extreme Movers: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-09-30
DeepSeek picked CCL, FICO, IOVA, LITE, RCL for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: +0.15%. Directions called correctly: 40%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v11 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-30 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-01 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | +0.15% |
| Directions called correctly | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.99% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CCL | up | -2.30% | -2.30% | 70% | -1.31% | No |
| 2 | FICO | down | +6.49% | -6.49% | 75% | -5.49% | No |
| 3 | IOVA | up | +1.29% | +1.29% | 65% | +2.28% | Yes |
| 4 | LITE | up | +9.31% | +9.31% | 60% | +10.30% | Yes |
| 5 | RCL | up | -1.07% | -1.07% | 65% | -0.08% | No |
The model's market view
US equities closed mixed on September 29, 2026, with the S&P 500 down 0.16% amid rising Treasury yields. Extreme movers were driven by earnings and regulatory news. We expect the selected movers to continue their directional momentum into the next session, though volatility remains elevated.
Why each pick
CCL
Carnival surged 13.41% after reporting record Q3 earnings and raising full-year guidance. The catalyst is substantive, driven by better-than-expected results and strong 2027 bookings. As the top S&P 500 gainer, momentum likely continues. Risk: profit-taking after a sharp move.
FICO
Fair Isaac plunged 26.52% following the FHFA's introduction of a single pricing grid for mortgage pricing, which threatens its credit-scoring monopoly. The catalyst is substantive and negative. The stock was the worst S&P 500 performer, and continuation lower is likely as the market digests competitive threats.
IOVA
Iovance Biotherapeutics soared 31.48% after raising its FY26 revenue guidance to $410-$420 million and receiving a price target hike from H.C. Wainwright. The catalyst is substantive. Continuation is expected as analysts revise estimates upward.
LITE
Lumentum rose 5.66% on news that Nvidia's co-packaged optics ramp-up could accelerate growth, supported by a bullish analyst note. The catalyst is substantive but somewhat speculative. Continuation is likely given sector momentum.
RCL
Royal Caribbean gained 7.45%, benefiting from sector-wide optimism following Carnival's strong earnings. The catalyst is substantive, reflecting robust cruise demand. Continuation is expected as the sector re-rates higher.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | FORM, HPE, MRNA, CEG, APP | -0.85% | 40% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | CCL, IOVA, DKNG, FICO, BE | +2.16% | 80% |
| Grok 4.5 | CCL, BE, FICO, RCL, STLD | -0.10% | 20% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | IOVA, BE, CCL, FICO, QURE | +0.35% | 60% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | CCL, FICO, BE, RCL, IOVA | -1.26% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | IOVA, FICO, CCL, BE, KMX | -0.26% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-09-30.
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