Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-30
Grok 4.5 picked CCL, BE, FICO, RCL, STLD for a 1-day horizon. Average directional return: -0.10%. Directions called correctly: 20%.
| Experiment | Extreme Movers |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | extreme-movers-v11 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-30 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-01 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Average directional return | -0.10% |
| Directions called correctly | 20% |
| Benchmark return | -0.99% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CCL | up | -2.30% | -2.30% | 68% | -1.31% | No |
| 2 | BE | up | -2.69% | -2.69% | 62% | -1.69% | No |
| 3 | FICO | up | +6.49% | +6.49% | 58% | +7.48% | Yes |
| 4 | RCL | up | -1.07% | -1.07% | 55% | -0.08% | No |
| 5 | STLD | up | -0.93% | -0.93% | 52% | +0.07% | No |
The model's market view
Source session September 29 saw extreme moves in cruise names on strong bookings and earnings while FICO collapsed on regulatory credit-score changes; broader market closed slightly lower on elevated yields. Expect selective continuation in high-conviction fundamental winners and partial mean-reversion in the largest percentage losers amid mixed pre-market action into September 30.
Why each pick
CCL
CCL rose 13.41% on September 29 after Q3 results showed record bookings and raised full-year guidance; the move is substantive rather than speculative. Continuation expected into the next session as cruise demand catalysts remain intact and volume was elevated. Latest intraday quote near $25.40 used (session open, modest further gain). Market-cap and liquidity floors confirmed at source close.
BE
BE advanced 10.80% on September 29 on manufacturing expansion and analyst support for AI/data-center power demand; catalyst is substantive. Continuation favored given backlog momentum and large-cap liquidity. Latest pre-market/intraday quote near $291–$296 range used. All three filters confirmed.
FICO
FICO fell 26.52% on September 29 after federal housing regulators altered competing credit-score rules for mortgages; the drop is substantive. Partial reversal expected as the stock traded near multi-year lows with high volume, inviting short-covering or value bids. Latest intraday quote near $595–$617 used (still down modestly). Market-cap and volume floors met.
RCL
RCL gained approximately 7.5% on September 29 alongside the cruise sector on strong booking trends; catalyst is substantive and sector-wide. Continuation anticipated as peer momentum and demand signals persist. Price and liquidity thresholds satisfied at source close; current quote taken from recent session data.
STLD
STLD declined about 3.9% on September 29 amid broader materials weakness and yield pressure; move is more macro than company-specific. Modest reversal favored given solid underlying steel demand and the relatively contained percentage drop versus extreme outliers. Liquidity and market-cap filters confirmed; current quote reflects latest available session levels.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Average directional return | Directions called correctly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | FORM, HPE, MRNA, CEG, APP | -0.85% | 40% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | CCL, IOVA, DKNG, FICO, BE | +2.16% | 80% |
| DeepSeek | CCL, FICO, IOVA, LITE, RCL | +0.15% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | IOVA, BE, CCL, FICO, QURE | +0.35% | 60% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | CCL, FICO, BE, RCL, IOVA | -1.26% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | IOVA, FICO, CCL, BE, KMX | -0.26% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Extreme Movers: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-09-30.
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