Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-28
DeepSeek picked WEN, ENPH, MSFT, GOOGL, VRT for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -1.09%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-28 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-29 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -1.09% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.16% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WEN | +0.72% | +0.72% | 70% | +0.88% | Yes | |
| 2 | ENPH | -0.49% | +0.49% | 65% | +0.66% | Yes | |
| 3 | MSFT | -0.75% | -0.75% | 60% | -0.59% | No | |
| 4 | GOOGL | -11.99% | -11.99% | 58% | -11.83% | No | |
| 5 | VRT | +5.25% | +5.25% | 55% | +5.42% | Yes |
The model's market view
Event-driven session with mega-cap tech earnings after the close, post-earnings dispersion in data-center and solar names, and a live merger-arbitrage situation in Wendy's. I expect single-stock catalysts to dominate over the next 24 hours, with the strongest risk-adjusted setups in WEN's offer-price convergence, ENPH's guidance-driven downside continuation, and MSFT/GOOGL earnings anticipation. VRT has the strongest reported fundamental beat but also the clearest gap-fade risk, so it is ranked last.
Why each pick
WEN
Latest quote USD 7.01 at 2026-10-28T10:44:49-04:00, live regular-session quote from Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WEN/history/); reference_price 7.01 and data_date 2026-10-28. Completed daily bars (US Eastern regular session, split-adjusted): 2026-10-21 O 6.46 H 6.48 L 6.20 C 6.28 V 5,494,300; 2026-10-22 O 6.29 H 6.59 L 6.26 C 6.57 V 5,181,000; 2026-10-23 O 6.46 H 6.46 L 6.14 C 6.22 V 4,940,400; 2026-10-26 O 6.18 H 6.34 L 6.00 C 6.19 V 5,712,400; 2026-10-27 O 6.20 H 6.20 L 6.04 C 6.14 V 5,133,400. return_5d_pct = -5.83%; high_20d 6.82; low_20d 5.94; avg_volume_20d 5.25M shares. The catalyst is observed, not anticipated: Trian Fund Management filed a proposal to buy all Wendy's shares for USD 7.35 per share in cash, about a 20% premium to Tuesday's close, valuing the company near USD 1.4B (Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-28/peltz-s-trian-offers-1-4-billion-for-wendy-s-wsj-reports). The stock jumped to a 7.20 intraday high and is now 7.01, still up 14.09% on the day but below the offer price. I expect the remaining move to be upward as the arbitrage spread compresses toward 7.35, though the fade from 7.20 shows the market is already discounting deal risk. The strongest counter-evidence is that the stock has not traded at the offer price, implying financing, board acceptance, or regulatory uncertainty; a board rejection or a close below 6.80 would invalidate the convergence thesis. Partial session: open 7.01, high_so_far 7.20, low_so_far 6.97, cumulative_volume 18,882,184 as of 10:44 ET; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap is about USD 1.337B at 7.01 and 20-day average dollar volume is about USD 33.2M, both above the floors.
ENPH
Latest quote USD 25.32 at 2026-10-28T10:46:58-04:00, live regular-session quote from Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ENPH/history/); reference_price 25.32 and data_date 2026-10-28. Completed daily bars (US Eastern regular session, split-adjusted): 2026-10-21 O 32.71 H 32.92 L 31.62 C 31.99 V 3,267,500; 2026-10-22 O 31.29 H 32.03 L 30.86 C 31.35 V 4,217,300; 2026-10-23 O 30.90 H 32.02 L 30.88 C 31.60 V 3,648,100; 2026-10-26 O 31.75 H 31.75 L 29.86 C 30.36 V 4,476,100; 2026-10-27 O 30.83 H 31.84 L 29.27 C 29.76 V 16,279,600. return_5d_pct = -7.66%; high_20d 33.90; low_20d 28.59; avg_volume_20d 5.29M shares. The catalyst is observed: Enphase reported Q3 revenue of USD 293.3M versus USD 305.2M expected, guided Q4 revenue to USD 225-255M against a USD 300.5M consensus, and the CEO said the company is 'not seeing any meaningful recovery in U.S. demand'; Oppenheimer and Roth downgraded the stock (Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/enphase-sinks-20-q4-guide-130601957.html). The stock opened at 23.89, made a low of 23.83, rallied to 25.95, and is now 25.32, still down 14.92% on the day. I expect the remaining move to be downward because the guidance cut implies material negative estimate revisions and the intraday bounce looks like short-covering rather than a fundamental reversal. The strongest counter-evidence is the strong intraday recovery from 23.83 to 25.95, which shows dip-buying and short-covering demand; a sustained move above 26.50 or a guidance revision would invalidate the down thesis. Partial session: open 23.89, high_so_far 25.95, low_so_far 23.83, cumulative_volume 13,438,003 as of 10:46 ET; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap is about USD 3.33B and 20-day average dollar volume is about USD 166.9M, both above the floors.
MSFT
Latest quote USD 529.39 at 2026-10-28T10:44:51-04:00, live regular-session quote from Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/); reference_price 529.39 and data_date 2026-10-28. Completed daily bars (US Eastern regular session, split-adjusted): 2026-10-21 O 529.44 H 533.28 L 525.02 C 532.95 V 13,940,100; 2026-10-22 O 533.14 H 533.60 L 520.30 C 521.08 V 21,266,600; 2026-10-23 O 517.75 H 525.77 L 515.70 C 524.51 V 13,671,500; 2026-10-26 O 527.40 H 533.25 L 521.69 C 532.60 V 19,021,000; 2026-10-27 O 532.35 H 534.70 L 528.33 C 531.33 V 19,503,300. return_5d_pct = -0.10%; high_20d 551.15; low_20d 510.31; avg_volume_20d 20.07M shares. The catalyst is scheduled, not yet observed: Microsoft reports fiscal Q1 2027 after the 2026-10-28 close, and options markets imply a roughly 5.09% earnings move. The pre-event price path is neutral-to-slightly-down, with the last three closes between 524.51 and 532.60 and 2026-10-27 volume slightly below the 20-day average, so positioning does not look stretched. I expect the remaining move after the current quote to be upward because Microsoft has a strong beat record and the stock has not broken down into the print; the main risk is a high bar for Azure growth and AI capex, which could turn the after-hours reaction negative. The strongest counter-evidence is that the stock remains below the 20-day high of 551.15 and has not shown pre-earnings accumulation; a verified close below 520.30 would invalidate the up thesis. Partial session: open 532.20, high_so_far 534.57, low_so_far 528.08, cumulative_volume 3,907,447 as of 10:44 ET; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap is about USD 3.95T and 20-day average dollar volume is about USD 10.6B, both far above the floors.
GOOGL
Latest quote USD 323.99 at 2026-10-28T10:44:29-04:00, live regular-session quote from Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history/); reference_price 323.99 and data_date 2026-10-28. Completed daily bars (US Eastern regular session, split-adjusted): 2026-10-21 O 336.98 H 337.27 L 330.38 C 334.76 V 29,165,500; 2026-10-22 O 330.46 H 331.43 L 322.00 C 324.22 V 27,748,100; 2026-10-23 O 321.15 H 324.53 L 320.18 C 320.21 V 17,569,600; 2026-10-26 O 320.89 H 321.48 L 316.60 C 316.80 V 23,991,800; 2026-10-27 O 317.00 H 323.88 L 316.86 C 320.58 V 28,527,400. return_5d_pct = -5.78%; high_20d 359.40; low_20d 316.86; avg_volume_20d 24.29M shares. The catalyst is scheduled, not yet observed: Alphabet reports Q3 2026 after the 2026-10-28 close, with consensus around USD 3.02-3.03 EPS and Google Cloud growth near 90%; the stock has beaten estimates for 14 straight quarters. The five-session decline from 334.76 to 320.58 has pushed the stock to the bottom of its 20-day range, which improves the odds of a relief bounce if the print is solid. I expect the remaining move to be upward because the stock is oversold into a high-probability beat and the 2026-10-28 session is already showing a modest recovery to 323.99; the main risk is that Cloud growth decelerates or AI capex guidance disappoints, which could reverse the bounce. The strongest counter-evidence is the persistent lower-high pattern since 2026-10-21 and the fact that a 14-quarter beat streak may already be priced; a close below 316.86 would invalidate the up thesis. Partial session: open 323.84, high_so_far 326.40, low_so_far 323.17, cumulative_volume 8,775,827 as of 10:44 ET; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap is about USD 3.92T and 20-day average dollar volume is about USD 8.27B, both far above the floors.
VRT
Latest quote USD 236.61 at 2026-10-28T10:44:27-04:00, live regular-session quote from Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VRT/history/); reference_price 236.61 and data_date 2026-10-28. Completed daily bars (US Eastern regular session, split-adjusted): 2026-10-21 O 216.58 H 220.00 L 210.94 C 212.15 V 6,412,200; 2026-10-22 O 203.61 H 204.00 L 193.14 C 195.59 V 8,434,200; 2026-10-23 O 191.60 H 196.73 L 187.24 C 194.32 V 7,398,300; 2026-10-26 O 197.63 H 201.68 L 194.55 C 199.78 V 5,530,500; 2026-10-27 O 203.00 H 210.92 L 203.00 C 208.56 V 8,407,800. return_5d_pct = +2.46%; high_20d 258.10; low_20d 187.24; avg_volume_20d 5.87M shares. The catalyst is observed: Vertiv reported Q3 FY12/26 revenue of USD 4.313B, up 61% year over year and well above its own guide, adjusted EPS of USD 2.21, organic orders up more than 100%, and raised full-year revenue guidance by USD 650M (Cestrian Capital Research, https://www.cestriancapitalresearch.com/vertiv-vrt-stock-rating-accumulate-329-price-target-after-q3-fy12-26-earnings/). The stock opened at 243.00, printed a high of 241.55 as reported, fell to 228.82, and is now 236.61, still up 13.45% on the day but below the open. I expect a further upward move over the remaining window because the fundamental beat and guidance raise are large enough to drive estimate revisions, and the post-open fade has not broken the gap. The strongest counter-evidence is the clear gap-and-fade pattern from 243.00 to 236.61, which signals profit-taking and could continue; a break below 228.82 would invalidate the up thesis. Partial session: open 243.00, high_so_far 241.55, low_so_far 228.82, cumulative_volume 7,864,061 as of 10:44 ET; relative intraday volume cannot be established without a same-time-of-day baseline. Market cap is about USD 80.35B and 20-day average dollar volume is about USD 1.30B, both above the floors.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | GOOGL, NOW, CMG, VRT, MSFT | +0.35% | 20% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | GOOGL, MSFT, NOW, CMG, F | -9.77% | 0% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash High | MSFT, GOOGL, META, AAPL, AMZN | -2.26% | 40% |
| Perplexity | MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, CAT, LLY | -5.69% | 0% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | GOOGL, CMG, F, NOW, MSFT | +5.30% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-28.
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