Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-10-28
Perplexity picked MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, CAT, LLY for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -5.69%. Picks with positive alpha: 0%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Perplexity |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-28 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-29 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -5.69% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 0% |
| Benchmark return | -0.16% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSFT | -0.75% | -0.75% | 62% | -0.59% | No | |
| 2 | GOOGL | -11.99% | -11.99% | 60% | -11.83% | No | |
| 3 | AMZN | -2.52% | -2.52% | 55% | -2.36% | No | |
| 4 | CAT | -7.27% | -7.27% | 54% | -7.10% | No | |
| 5 | LLY | +6.76% | -6.76% | 52% | -6.60% | No |
The model's market view
The one-session window is dominated by a dense catalyst cluster: the FOMC decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, Microsoft and Alphabet earnings after today's close, and pre-market results from Caterpillar and Eli Lilly tomorrow. AI sentiment has already strengthened into the events, so upside surprises may be partially priced, while disappointment around AI capital spending, cloud growth, or guidance could produce sharp reversals. I favor megacap AI beneficiaries into earnings, a pre-earnings anticipation trade in Amazon, and cautious downside exposure to Eli Lilly after its soft pre-market move.
Why each pick
MSFT
Microsoft reports fiscal Q1 results after today's close, with Azure growth, AI demand, operating margins, capex above $50 billion, and free cash flow the central debate. The event is officially scheduled but has not occurred; the forecast covers the post-release reaction because the window ends at 10:42 a.m. ET on October 29. Recent completed-session price action was constructive: MSFT closed $532.60 on October 27, up 1.54%, after a tech-led rebound, and traded near $533.25 at 11:37 a.m. ET on October 28, only modestly above the pre-event area, suggesting anticipation is present but not extreme. I expect an upside reaction if Azure growth and AI monetization commentary validate the investment cycle; the principal risk is that elevated capex or softer Azure guidance triggers a sell-the-news decline. Strongest counter-evidence is the stock's proximity to its recent highs and the market's already optimistic AI framing. A close below roughly $525 before the print, or guidance implying materially higher capex without matching revenue visibility, would invalidate the upside thesis. Daily five-bar OHLC, 20-session high/low, and 20-day average share volume were not independently verified in available research and are reported as null; the dollar-volume figure is derived from the cited 10-day average share volume multiplied by the latest quoted price, not a directly verified 20-day dollar-volume statistic. Latest quote: $533.25 at 2026-10-28T15:37:00Z, live regular session, CNBC.
GOOGL
Alphabet is scheduled to report after today's close, with consensus near $3.11 EPS and investors focused on Search growth, YouTube, cloud momentum, and the return on AI capital spending. The event has not occurred; the relevant price reaction falls inside the forecast window, which ends before the open on October 29. Alphabet closed at $316.80 on October 27, down 1.06%, then traded near $320.23 during the October 28 session, indicating a modest pre-earnings recovery rather than an extended run. That path supports further upside if results confirm AI-driven advertising and cloud strength, but also leaves room for reversal if capex or competitive commentary disappoints. The strongest counter-evidence is that AI enthusiasm has already lifted the broader complex, so a merely in-line report may not sustain gains. A break back below the October 27 close near $316.80 before the release would weaken the upside case; explicit disclosure of materially higher spending without revenue conversion would invalidate it. Five-day OHLC, 20-session range, and 20-day average share volume were not verified from the available sources and are null; the dollar-volume figure is derived from the latest cited session volume and current price as a proxy, not a verified 20-day average. Latest quote: $320.23 at approximately 2026-10-28T15:37:00Z, live regular session, CNBC.
AMZN
Amazon is officially scheduled to report Q3 results after the close on October 29, which is after this window ends; therefore, the selection is an anticipation trade rather than a post-earnings reaction trade. Investors are focused on AWS growth, retail margins, advertising, and the company's share of the roughly $600 billion combined 2026 capital-spending plans cited for Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet. Amazon closed at $253.10 on October 27, up 1.61%, and was indicated near $250.10 in the October 28 pre-market, a modest pullback that suggests some de-risking into the print. I expect anticipation and sector read-through from Microsoft and Alphabet results to support the shares during the window, particularly if hyperscaler commentary reinforces cloud/AI demand. The strongest counter-evidence is the pre-market softness and the risk that strong Microsoft or Alphabet capex commentary raises concerns about Amazon's own spending. A move below the October 27 low near $248.71 would invalidate the upside anticipation thesis. Five-day OHLC, 20-session range, and 20-day average share volume were not verified in the available research and are null; the dollar-volume figure is derived from the latest cited session volume and price as a proxy, not a verified 20-day average. Latest verifiable quote: $250.10 at 2026-10-28T11:09:00Z, pre-market/extended hours, CNBC.
CAT
Caterpillar is scheduled to report Q3 results before the open on October 29, inside the forecast window, with consensus near $7.03-$7.16 EPS and revenue expectations around $20.8 billion. The event has not occurred. CAT traded at $717.21 at 9:38 a.m. ET on October 28, up 0.55%, after a recent analyst price-target reduction to $840, indicating cautious but not distressed positioning. I expect a modest upside reaction if machinery demand, data-center/power-generation exposure, and backlog commentary remain resilient; the stock's large AI-infrastructure adjacency makes positive commentary potentially powerful. The strongest counter-evidence is the lowered target and the risk that tariff, construction, or mining demand commentary disappoints. A pre-open move below roughly $700, or guidance implying weaker 2026 equipment demand, would invalidate the upside thesis. Five-day OHLC, 20-session high/low, and 20-day average share volume were not independently verified and are null; the dollar-volume figure is derived from the cited 10-day average share volume multiplied by the latest quoted price, not a directly verified 20-day dollar-volume statistic. Latest quote: $717.21 at 2026-10-28T13:38:00Z, live regular session, CNBC.
LLY
Eli Lilly is scheduled to report Q3 results before the open on October 29, within the forecast window, with consensus near $6.61 EPS and investor attention on GLP-1/GIP obesity and diabetes demand, pricing, supply, and the company's $85-87 billion revenue outlook. The event has not occurred. LLY closed at $1,281.91 on October 27, up 0.22%, but was indicated near $1,268.57 in the October 28 pre-market, down about 1.04%; that soft pre-event path supports a cautious stance because expectations for the GLP-1 franchise remain high. I expect downside if results or guidance fail to clear elevated obesity-drug expectations, with the pre-market weakness suggesting some positioning already anticipates that risk. The strongest counter-evidence is the stock's stability near $1,282 into the print and its low beta; a strong script-trend or guidance raise could quickly reverse the bearish call. A recovery above the October 27 high near $1,297.92 before the release would invalidate the downside thesis. Five-day OHLC, 20-session high/low, and 20-day average share volume were not fully verified across the available sources and are null; the dollar-volume figure is derived from the cited average share volume multiplied by the latest quoted price, not a directly verified 20-day dollar-volume statistic. Latest verifiable quote: $1,268.57 at 2026-10-28T11:10:56Z, pre-market/extended hours, Perplexity Finance.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | GOOGL, NOW, CMG, VRT, MSFT | +0.35% | 20% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | GOOGL, MSFT, NOW, CMG, F | -9.77% | 0% |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash High | MSFT, GOOGL, META, AAPL, AMZN | -2.26% | 40% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | GOOGL, CMG, F, NOW, MSFT | +5.30% | 80% |
| DeepSeek | WEN, ENPH, MSFT, GOOGL, VRT | -1.09% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Perplexity's picks for 2026-10-28.
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