Event Gaps: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-10-16
Gemini 3 Pro picked NFLX, TSLA, AMD, BAC, NVDA for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -0.45%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 3 Pro |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-16 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-19 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -0.45% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.55% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NFLX | -2.05% | -2.05% | 75% | -1.51% | No | |
| 2 | TSLA | +0.28% | -0.28% | 70% | +0.27% | Yes | |
| 3 | AMD | -0.29% | -0.29% | 68% | +0.25% | Yes | |
| 4 | BAC | -2.62% | -2.62% | 65% | -2.07% | No | |
| 5 | NVDA | -0.25% | +0.25% | 65% | +0.79% | Yes |
The model's market view
The overall US equity market is experiencing heightened volatility amidst early Q3 earnings season reports and macroeconomic expectations around central bank rate trajectories. Large-cap earnings reactions have demonstrated significant dispersion, creating strong directional momentum and continuation opportunities for stocks reporting unexpected top/bottom-line surprises or key operational updates.
Why each pick
NFLX
DAILY OHLCV (Completed 5 sessions):
- 2026-10-09: Open 690.10, High 695.00, Low 685.20, Close 692.40, Vol 2850000
- 2026-10-12: Open 693.00, High 701.50, Low 690.00, Close 698.80, Vol 3100000
- 2026-10-13: Open 700.00, High 705.20, Low 696.10, Close 702.10, Vol 2950000
- 2026-10-14: Open 703.50, High 712.00, Low 701.00, Close 710.50, Vol 3400000
- 2026-10-15: Open 712.00, High 725.40, Low 708.30, Close 722.10, Vol 4800000
return_5d_pct = 4.29%
high_20d = 725.40, low_20d = 672.00
avg_volume_20d = 3250000
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history
US Eastern session convention.
PRICE ACTION AND THESIS CHECK:
Netflix reported Q3 earnings post-market on October 15, exceeding subscriber addition estimates and boosting full-year margin guidance. The stock closed strong at $722.10 and pushed higher into extended trading and today's session open. Strong subscriber tailwinds and advertising tier expansion support fundamental re-rating.
Strongest counter-evidence: Extended valuation and potential profit-taking near all-time high resistance.
Invalidation level: A drop below $700.00 would invalidate immediate upward momentum.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME:
latest_price: 735.50 USD
quote_time: 2026-10-16T14:35:00Z
source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX
Type: Delayed regular-session quote.
Pre-event price (2026-10-15 close): $722.10. Observed reaction: +1.85% move into current trading. We expect momentum to drive a further +2.8% move through the window end.
TSLA
DAILY OHLCV (Completed 5 sessions):
- 2026-10-09: Open 242.10, High 246.50, Low 238.20, Close 240.50, Vol 58000000
- 2026-10-12: Open 239.50, High 243.00, Low 235.10, Close 237.80, Vol 52000000
- 2026-10-13: Open 238.00, High 241.20, Low 232.50, Close 234.20, Vol 51000000
- 2026-10-14: Open 235.00, High 238.00, Low 228.90, Close 230.10, Vol 61000000
- 2026-10-15: Open 229.00, High 232.50, Low 221.80, Close 223.50, Vol 75000000
return_5d_pct = -7.07%
high_20d = 264.80, low_20d = 221.80
avg_volume_20d = 59000000
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history
US Eastern session convention.
PRICE ACTION AND THESIS CHECK:
Tesla experienced severe selling pressure following market digestion of recent Robotaxi event expectations and upcoming Q3 earnings margin concerns. Lower guidance on vehicle deliveries continues to weigh heavily on price action, with volume picking up on down days.
Strongest counter-evidence: Oversold technical rebound off key psychological support at $220.00.
Invalidation level: A closing cross back above $232.00.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME:
latest_price: 221.10 USD
quote_time: 2026-10-16T14:35:00Z
source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA
Type: Delayed regular-session quote.
Pre-event price (2026-10-15 close): $223.50. Observed reaction: -1.07%. Expecting continued downward drift of 3.2% over the session window.
AMD
DAILY OHLCV (Completed 5 sessions):
- 2026-10-09: Open 168.50, High 172.00, Low 166.10, Close 170.20, Vol 42000000
- 2026-10-12: Open 171.00, High 175.40, Low 169.80, Close 174.10, Vol 45000000
- 2026-10-13: Open 174.50, High 178.20, Low 172.50, Close 176.80, Vol 48000000
- 2026-10-14: Open 177.00, High 181.50, Low 175.20, Close 179.90, Vol 53000000
- 2026-10-15: Open 180.20, High 184.00, Low 178.50, Close 182.40, Vol 51000000
return_5d_pct = 7.17%
high_20d = 184.00, low_20d = 152.30
avg_volume_20d = 46000000
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history
US Eastern session convention.
PRICE ACTION AND THESIS CHECK:
AMD continues to benefit from positive demand spillover following recent AI chip roadmap updates and datacenter partner announcements. Shares broke out past key resistance at $180 on above-average volume.
Strongest counter-evidence: Broader semiconductor sector pullbacks led by macroeconomic export restriction concerns.
Invalidation level: A break below $175.00.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME:
latest_price: 184.20 USD
quote_time: 2026-10-16T14:35:00Z
source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD
Type: Delayed regular-session quote.
Pre-event price (2026-10-15 close): $182.40. Observed reaction: +0.99%. Forecast continuation upward move of 2.5% over the 1-day window.
BAC
DAILY OHLCV (Completed 5 sessions):
- 2026-10-09: Open 39.50, High 40.10, Low 39.20, Close 39.80, Vol 32000000
- 2026-10-12: Open 39.90, High 40.40, Low 39.60, Close 40.10, Vol 30000000
- 2026-10-13: Open 40.20, High 40.80, Low 39.90, Close 40.50, Vol 35000000
- 2026-10-14: Open 40.60, High 42.10, Low 40.30, Close 41.80, Vol 58000000
- 2026-10-15: Open 41.90, High 42.50, Low 41.40, Close 42.10, Vol 45000000
return_5d_pct = 5.78%
high_20d = 42.50, low_20d = 38.10
avg_volume_20d = 36000000
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAC/history
US Eastern session convention.
PRICE ACTION AND THESIS CHECK:
Bank of America reported solid Q3 results on October 14, driven by strong net interest income resilience and investment banking fees. The stock has posted multi-day gains, breaking out to near 52-week highs.
Strongest counter-evidence: Profit-taking after a 3-day rally into sector resistance.
Invalidation level: A decline below $40.80.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME:
latest_price: 42.35 USD
quote_time: 2026-10-16T14:35:00Z
source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAC
Type: Delayed regular-session quote.
Pre-event price (2026-10-15 close): $42.10. Observed reaction: +0.59%. Expect minor upside continuation of 1.8% over the target window.
NVDA
DAILY OHLCV (Completed 5 sessions):
- 2026-10-09: Open 131.20, High 134.50, Low 129.80, Close 133.40, Vol 52000000
- 2026-10-12: Open 133.80, High 136.20, Low 132.10, Close 135.10, Vol 49000000
- 2026-10-13: Open 135.50, High 138.90, Low 134.20, Close 138.00, Vol 58000000
- 2026-10-14: Open 138.50, High 140.80, Low 136.90, Close 139.60, Vol 61000000
- 2026-10-15: Open 140.00, High 141.20, Low 137.10, Close 138.50, Vol 55000000
return_5d_pct = 3.82%
high_20d = 141.20, low_20d = 118.50
avg_volume_20d = 56000000
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history
US Eastern session convention.
PRICE ACTION AND THESIS CHECK:
NVIDIA consolidated near its recent highs after testing resistance at $141.20. Strong demand for Blackwell architecture chips provides ongoing structural support, though short-term technical indicators show modest exhaustion near upper range limits.
Strongest counter-evidence: Profit-taking push pulling the stock down to consolidate toward $134.00 support.
Invalidation level: A breakout and close above $142.50.
INTRADAY EVIDENCE AT ANSWERING TIME:
latest_price: 137.80 USD
quote_time: 2026-10-16T14:35:00Z
source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA
Type: Delayed regular-session quote.
Pre-event price (2026-10-15 close): $138.50. Observed reaction: -0.51%. Expecting a mild pull-back of 2.1% over the window.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | HIMS, TSLA, TRV, TFC, FITB | -0.02% | 80% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | TRV, TFC, MTB, NFLX, GM | +0.28% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | AA, TSLA, RF, TFC, CRWV | -0.40% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | CLF, CRWV, TSLA, MAN, FITB | +3.47% | 100% |
| DeepSeek | MTB, TRV, TFC, TSLA, IBRX | +2.09% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-10-16.
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