Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-16
DeepSeek picked MTB, TRV, TFC, TSLA, IBRX for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +2.09%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-16 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-19 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +2.09% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.55% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MTB | -1.56% | -1.56% | 75% | -1.01% | No | |
| 2 | TRV | +0.01% | +0.01% | 70% | +0.56% | Yes | |
| 3 | TFC | -2.11% | -2.11% | 65% | -1.57% | No | |
| 4 | TSLA | +0.28% | -0.28% | 60% | +0.27% | Yes | |
| 5 | IBRX | -11.64% | +11.64% | 55% | +12.18% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equities enter the final session of the week with Q3 earnings season in full swing. Financials dominate the pre-market calendar, with M&T Bank, Travelers, and Truist all reporting before the open. Tesla's Roadster event has already occurred, and its after-hours reaction will drive sentiment. ImmunityBio's FDA approval is being digested. The market is pricing in a mixed reaction: strong bank earnings could lift financials, while Tesla and biotech face profit-taking. Volatility is expected to remain elevated as investors rotate into earnings-driven names.
Why each pick
MTB
M&T Bank reports Q3 2026 earnings before the open on October 16, 2026. Consensus EPS is $4.96 on revenue of $2.53 billion. The stock closed at $218.65 on October 15, and pre-market quotes indicate $218.20 as of 5:30 AM ET. Completed daily history (5 sessions, split-adjusted OHLC): Oct 9: O 216.78 H 218.01 L 215.98 C 217.49 V 721,100; Oct 12: O 217.86 H 221.15 L 217.86 C 219.89 V 1,090,300; Oct 13: O 221.39 H 222.04 L 216.44 C 217.93 V 743,300; Oct 14: O 215.33 H 216.33 L 213.23 C 216.05 V 795,500; Oct 15: O 217.65 H 219.85 L 215.56 C 218.65 V 1,265,300. Return_5d_pct = 0.50% (218.65 vs. 217.56 on Oct 8). high_20d = 228.77 (Sep 21); low_20d = 211.71 (Oct 1). avg_volume_20d ≈ 1.05 million shares. The stock has been consolidating in a $213–$222 range for the past two weeks with declining volume, suggesting a coiled spring ahead of earnings. A beat on EPS and revenue would likely trigger a breakout above the 20-day high, while a miss could test the $211 support. The strongest counter-evidence is the muted pre-market move (+0.98% after hours), which suggests the market is not pricing in a large surprise. Invalidation: a close below $211 on above-average volume would negate the bullish thesis. Latest price: $218.65 (regular close, Oct 15); pre-market $218.20 (Oct 16, 5:30 AM ET). Market cap $31.58B; avg dollar volume $218M.
TRV
Travelers Companies reports Q3 2026 earnings before the open on October 16, 2026. Consensus EPS is $7.39 on revenue of $11.38 billion. The stock closed at $383.89 on October 15, up 1.61%, and pre-market quotes show $384.71 as of 4:41 AM ET. Completed daily history (5 sessions, split-adjusted OHLC): Oct 9: O 368.11 H 370.91 L 367.33 C 368.75 V 784,800; Oct 12: O 370.06 H 372.64 L 368.69 C 371.68 V 744,400; Oct 13: O 373.76 H 374.49 L 370.23 C 373.28 V 986,800; Oct 14: O 370.51 H 377.94 L 367.00 C 377.82 V 1,311,500; Oct 15: O 382.69 H 385.37 L 375.96 C 383.89 V 2,078,700. Return_5d_pct = 3.68% (383.89 vs. 370.27 on Oct 8). high_20d = 385.37 (Oct 15); low_20d = 353.79 (Oct 1). avg_volume_20d ≈ 1.2 million shares. The stock has rallied sharply over the past five sessions, breaking above its prior range, with volume expanding on the latest up day. A strong earnings beat (like the recent Q2 beat) could push the stock to new highs, while a miss could trigger a sharp reversal. The main risk is that the recent rally has already priced in a positive surprise, as reflected in the +0.21% pre-market gain. Invalidation: a close below $375 would break the short-term uptrend. Latest price: $383.89 (regular close, Oct 15); pre-market $384.71 (Oct 16, 4:41 AM ET). Market cap $80.07B; avg dollar volume $613M.
TFC
Truist Financial reports Q3 2026 earnings before the open on October 16, 2026. Consensus EPS is $1.11 on revenue of $5.36 billion. The stock closed at $46.57 on October 15, up 2.19%, and pre-market quotes indicate $46.98 as of 5:49 AM ET. Completed daily history (5 sessions, split-adjusted OHLC): Oct 9: O 45.87 H 46.32 L 45.73 C 46.11 V 6,790,300; Oct 12: O — H — L — C — V — (data not available in the provided snapshot); Oct 13: O — H — L — C — V —; Oct 14: O 45.42 H 45.70 L 45.06 C 45.57 V 7,000,000 (approx.); Oct 15: O 45.98 H 46.73 L 45.51 C 46.57 V 12,629,900. Return_5d_pct = 0.84% (46.57 vs. 46.18 on Oct 8). high_20d = 49.24 (Sep 21); low_20d = 45.06 (Oct 14). avg_volume_20d ≈ 7.5 million shares. The stock has been trending lower since mid-September but bounced strongly off the $45 support on October 14–15 with above-average volume. A positive earnings surprise could extend the rebound, while a miss could retest the recent lows. The main counter-evidence is the revenue miss in the latest quarter, which may weigh on sentiment. Invalidation: a close below $45 would invalidate the bullish reversal. Latest price: $46.57 (regular close, Oct 15); pre-market $46.98 (Oct 16, 5:49 AM ET). Market cap $56.89B; avg dollar volume $336M.
TSLA
Tesla held its highly anticipated second-generation Roadster showcase on the evening of October 15, 2026, at SpaceX's Texas facility. CEO Elon Musk hyped the event as potentially the greatest product demonstration ever. The stock closed at $362.44 on October 15, down 1.29%, but rose about 3% in pre-market trading on October 16 to $378.95 as investors digested the event. Completed daily history (5 sessions, split-adjusted OHLC): Oct 9: O 382.38 H 388.56 L 379.71 C 382.70 V 38,952,400; Oct 12: O 382.61 H 382.70 L 377.58 C 378.03 V 20,244,300; Oct 13: O 372.33 H 377.05 L 371.30 C 375.23 V 18,393,000; Oct 14: O 371.16 H 371.39 L 363.82 C 367.16 V 31,001,400; Oct 15: O 360.57 H 363.75 L 355.23 C 362.44 V 26,614,300. Return_5d_pct = -3.35% (362.44 vs. 375.00 on Oct 8). high_20d = 388.56 (Oct 9); low_20d = 345.88 (Sep 30). avg_volume_20d ≈ 28 million shares. The event has already occurred; the pre-market pop suggests initial optimism, but the stock remains below its recent highs. The risk is that the Roadster is a low-volume, high-end product with limited near-term revenue impact, and the initial enthusiasm could fade, leading to a sell-the-news reaction. The strongest counter-evidence is the pre-market gain, which could indicate continuation. Invalidation: a break below $355 (recent low) would confirm a bearish reversal. Latest price: $362.44 (regular close, Oct 15); pre-market $378.95 (Oct 16, 4:00 AM ET). Market cap $1.43T; avg dollar volume $13.4B.
IBRX
ImmunityBio received an expanded FDA approval for its cancer drug Anktiva on October 14, 2026, broadening its use in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer. The stock closed at $10.00 on October 15, up 0.91%, after a volatile session. Completed daily history (5 sessions, split-adjusted OHLC): Oct 9: O 9.95 H 10.80 L 9.87 C 10.51 V 18,657,500; Oct 12: O 10.59 H 10.62 L 10.05 C 10.12 V 11,057,100; Oct 13: O 10.00 H 10.06 L 9.56 C 9.80 V 11,604,000; Oct 14: O 9.69 H 10.45 L 9.35 C 9.91 V 30,228,600; Oct 15: O 10.20 H 10.50 L 9.81 C 10.00 V 19,900,000. Return_5d_pct = 0.91% (10.00 vs. 9.91 on Oct 8). high_20d = 10.81 (Oct 5); low_20d = 8.20 (Sep 18). avg_volume_20d ≈ 15 million shares. The stock initially spiked on the FDA news but has since given back most of the gains, suggesting the market has already priced in the approval. The pre-market quote of $10.02 (4:20 AM ET) is essentially flat. The risk is that profit-taking continues as the news fades, especially given the stock's 395% year-to-date gain. The strongest counter-evidence is the high short interest, which could fuel a squeeze. Invalidation: a close above $10.50 would signal renewed bullish momentum. Latest price: $10.00 (regular close, Oct 15); pre-market $10.02 (Oct 16, 4:20 AM ET). Market cap $10.6B; avg dollar volume $100M.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | HIMS, TSLA, TRV, TFC, FITB | -0.02% | 80% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | TRV, TFC, MTB, NFLX, GM | +0.28% | 60% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | NFLX, TSLA, AMD, BAC, NVDA | -0.45% | 60% |
| Grok 4.5 | AA, TSLA, RF, TFC, CRWV | -0.40% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | CLF, CRWV, TSLA, MAN, FITB | +3.47% | 100% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-16.
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