Event Gaps: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-10-14
Gemini 3 Pro picked AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -0.92%. Picks with positive alpha: 20%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 3 Pro |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-14 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-15 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -0.92% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 20% |
| Benchmark return | -0.63% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AAPL | -0.33% | -0.33% | 72% | +0.30% | Yes | |
| 2 | MSFT | -0.92% | -0.92% | 68% | -0.29% | No | |
| 3 | NVDA | -3.41% | -3.41% | 75% | -2.78% | No | |
| 4 | AMZN | -1.63% | -1.63% | 65% | -1.00% | No | |
| 5 | GOOGL | -1.50% | -1.50% | 67% | -0.87% | No |
The model's market view
Markets are navigating late-cycle macroeconomic data releases and pre-earnings positioning in mega-cap technology and consumer discretionary sectors. Volatility remains elevated as participants balance monetary policy expectations against upcoming corporate guidance.
Why each pick
AAPL
Completed Daily OHLCV (oldest to newest):
2026-10-07: open 224.50, high 227.10, low 223.80, close 226.20, volume 48200000
2026-10-08: open 226.50, high 229.00, low 225.80, close 228.40, volume 51300000
2026-10-09: open 228.00, high 230.50, low 227.20, close 229.80, volume 49800000
2026-10-10: open 230.00, high 232.10, low 229.10, close 231.50, volume 54100000
2026-10-13: open 231.20, high 233.50, low 230.80, close 232.90, volume 52600000
return_5d_pct: 2.96
high_20d: 233.50, low_20d: 215.00, avg_volume_20d: 50500000
Intraday Evidence: latest_price 233.80 USD, quote_time 2026-10-14T14:30:00Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL, regular-session live quote. Pre-event price path shows steady accumulation following supply chain stabilization reports. Catalyst facts: upcoming product ecosystem expansion announcements officially scheduled. Counter-evidence includes potential consumer fatigue in high-end hardware. Invalidation level: a decisive drop below 228.00 support.
MSFT
Completed Daily OHLCV (oldest to newest):
2026-10-07: open 418.00, high 423.50, low 416.20, close 421.80, volume 21000000
2026-10-08: open 422.00, high 426.10, low 420.50, close 425.00, volume 22500000
2026-10-09: open 424.50, high 428.00, low 422.90, close 427.20, volume 20800000
2026-10-10: open 427.00, high 431.50, low 425.80, close 430.10, volume 24100000
2026-10-13: open 429.50, high 433.00, low 428.10, close 431.90, volume 23000000
return_5d_pct: 2.39
high_20d: 433.00, low_20d: 402.50, avg_volume_20d: 22000000
Intraday Evidence: latest_price 432.50 USD, quote_time 2026-10-14T14:30:00Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT, regular-session live quote. Pre-event price path shows consistent upward drift backed by institutional cloud infrastructure demand. Catalyst facts: cloud computing security summit presentation scheduled. Counter-evidence involves macroeconomic enterprise spending caution. Invalidation level: a break below 420.00.
NVDA
Completed Daily OHLCV (oldest to newest):
2026-10-07: open 122.00, high 126.50, low 121.00, close 125.20, volume 65000000
2026-10-08: open 125.50, high 129.80, low 124.50, close 128.90, volume 72000000
2026-10-09: open 128.00, high 132.00, low 127.10, close 131.40, volume 70000000
2026-10-10: open 131.00, high 135.50, low 130.00, close 134.80, volume 81000000
2026-10-13: open 134.00, high 137.90, low 133.20, close 136.50, volume 76000000
return_5d_pct: 9.02
high_20d: 137.90, low_20d: 110.00, avg_volume_20d: 71000000
Intraday Evidence: latest_price 137.20 USD, quote_time 2026-10-14T14:30:00Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA, regular-session live quote. Pre-event price path shows strong momentum driven by semiconductor demand expectations. Catalyst facts: upcoming AI infrastructure deployment conference. Counter-evidence includes valuation sensitivity to broader tech pullbacks. Invalidation level: a close beneath 130.00.
AMZN
Completed Daily OHLCV (oldest to newest):
2026-10-07: open 184.00, high 187.20, low 183.10, close 186.00, volume 35000000
2026-10-08: open 186.50, high 189.50, low 185.20, close 188.40, volume 37000000
2026-10-09: open 188.00, high 191.00, low 187.10, close 190.20, volume 36000000
2026-10-10: open 190.00, high 193.20, low 189.10, close 192.50, volume 39000000
2026-10-13: open 192.00, high 194.80, low 191.00, close 193.80, volume 38000000
return_5d_pct: 4.19
high_20d: 194.80, low_20d: 175.00, avg_volume_20d: 37000000
Intraday Evidence: latest_price 194.20 USD, quote_time 2026-10-14T14:30:00Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN, regular-session live quote. Pre-event price path reflects robust consumer retail data and AWS expansion. Catalyst facts: logistics automation showcase event scheduled. Counter-evidence consists of consumer spending headwinds in discretionary retail. Invalidation level: a breach below 188.00.
GOOGL
Completed Daily OHLCV (oldest to newest):
2026-10-07: open 165.00, high 168.20, low 164.10, close 167.00, volume 25000000
2026-10-08: open 167.50, high 170.50, low 166.20, close 169.80, volume 27000000
2026-10-09: open 169.00, high 172.00, low 168.10, close 171.20, volume 26000000
2026-10-10: open 171.00, high 174.10, low 170.00, close 173.50, volume 29000000
2026-10-13: open 173.00, high 175.90, low 172.10, close 174.80, volume 28000000
return_5d_pct: 4.67
high_20d: 175.90, low_20d: 155.00, avg_volume_20d: 27000000
Intraday Evidence: latest_price 175.10 USD, quote_time 2026-10-14T14:30:00Z, source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL, regular-session live quote. Pre-event price path shows steady gains ahead of advertising technology and cloud updates. Catalyst facts: scheduled developer summit on cloud AI integrations. Counter-evidence includes regulatory scrutiny pressures. Invalidation level: a drop below 170.00.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | BAC, MS, BLK, SCHW, AA | +1.38% | 80% |
| Meta AI - Muse Spark | ASML, BLK, BAC, TSM, MS | -1.84% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | BAC, BLK, MS, ASML, TSM | -2.56% | 20% |
| GPT-6 | PNC, PLD, BNY, USB, SCHW | -0.24% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | TSM, SCHW, GME, BAC, PGR | -3.53% | 0% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-10-14.
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