Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-14
DeepSeek picked TSM, SCHW, GME, BAC, PGR for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -3.53%. Picks with positive alpha: 0%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-14 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-15 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -3.53% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 0% |
| Benchmark return | -0.63% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSM | -5.07% | -5.07% | 68% | -4.43% | No | |
| 2 | SCHW | -3.33% | -3.33% | 65% | -2.69% | No | |
| 3 | GME | -1.61% | -1.61% | 60% | -0.98% | No | |
| 4 | BAC | +3.34% | -3.34% | 62% | -2.70% | No | |
| 5 | PGR | +7.46% | -7.46% | 60% | -6.82% | No |
The model's market view
U.S. equities face a volatile session on October 14, 2026, with semiconductor weakness and bank earnings miss weighing on sentiment. ASML's mixed results triggered a chip rout, while BAC and PGR reported disappointing numbers. Upcoming catalysts include TSMC and Charles Schwab earnings on October 15, which could drive sharp moves in those names. GameStop's CEO buying spree continues to attract momentum traders. The window from 2026-10-14T14:38:17.922Z to 2026-10-15T14:38:00.000Z captures the remainder of today's session and tomorrow's pre-market, where event anticipation and reactions will be key.
Why each pick
TSM
Latest_price: 435.99 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-14T14:40:18Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSM, live. 5 daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-07 O 472.60 H 475.80 L 471.30 C 472.20 V 7,304,800; 2026-10-08 O 466.32 H 471.19 L 452.88 C 457.99 V 13,421,700; 2026-10-09 O 464.21 H 464.83 L 449.75 C 453.31 V 9,242,000; 2026-10-12 O 453.55 H 454.40 L 444.35 C 444.35 V 8,867,200; 2026-10-13 O 439.52 H 445.50 L 437.40 C 445.12 V 8,555,400.
return_5d_pct: -7.71%
high_20d: 487.47
low_20d: 413.88
avg_volume_20d: 9,713,855
TSM reports Q3 2026 earnings on October 15 at 2:00 AM Eastern Time (06:00 UTC), within the forecast window. The stock has fallen for five consecutive sessions, losing 7.71%, and is down 2.05% intraday. The recent chip rout, triggered by ASML's mixed results, has pressured TSM. However, TSMC is the key AI beneficiary, and a beat-and-raise could spark a rebound. The observed reaction to ASML's earnings was negative, but TSM's specific guidance on AI demand and margins will be critical. Anticipation of the earnings may lead to position squaring before the event, but the main move is expected after the release. The strongest counter-evidence to an up call is the current downtrend and bearish sentiment in semis. A close below the 20-day low of 413.88 would invalidate the bullish thesis. Confidence is moderate due to event uncertainty.
SCHW
Latest_price: 95.71 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-14T14:38:17Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCHW, live. 5 daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-07 O 95.94 H 96.27 L 94.70 C 95.58 V 7,122,100; 2026-10-08 O 95.60 H 97.18 L 95.43 C 96.87 V 6,570,400; 2026-10-09 O 97.48 H 97.48 L 96.37 C 96.70 V 6,499,800; 2026-10-12 O 97.07 H 97.82 L 96.69 C 97.06 V 4,636,300; 2026-10-13 O 97.30 H 97.69 L 95.81 C 95.94 V 6,859,600.
return_5d_pct: -0.89%
high_20d: 100.61
low_20d: 94.70
avg_volume_20d: 6,500,000
SCHW reports Q3 2026 earnings on October 15 before the opening bell. Adjusted net income is anticipated to rise 27% to $1.66 per share. The stock has been range-bound but recently pulled back to near the 20-day low. A strong earnings report could be a positive catalyst, especially if guidance is upbeat. The event is scheduled, not yet occurred. Anticipation may lead to modest buying before the release. The main risk is that expectations are already elevated, and a miss could drive the stock below the 20-day low of 94.70. The observed price action shows consolidation, and volume has been moderate. Confidence is moderate.
GME
Latest_price: 27.87 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-14T14:39:13Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME, live. 5 daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-07 O 24.53 H 24.74 L 24.41 C 24.58 V 7,594,200; 2026-10-08 O 24.10 H 25.82 L 24.04 C 25.28 V 13,060,100; 2026-10-09 O 25.23 H 26.76 L 24.90 C 26.56 V 16,294,900; 2026-10-12 O 26.21 H 27.25 L 25.77 C 27.23 V 9,114,200; 2026-10-13 O 27.10 H 27.53 L 26.75 C 27.22 V 12,622,500.
return_5d_pct: 9.94%
high_20d: 27.53
low_20d: 21.39
avg_volume_20d: 10,000,000
GME has surged nearly 10% over five sessions driven by CEO Ryan Cohen's continued buying spree, with the latest disclosure of 844,130 shares purchased. This is a material news event that has already occurred. The stock is up 2.39% intraday. Momentum could continue as retail traders follow the CEO's lead. However, the stock is extended and could face profit-taking. The observed volume has been elevated, supporting the move. The strongest counter-evidence is the lack of a fundamental catalyst beyond insider buying. A break below the 20-day low of 21.39 would invalidate the bullish thesis. Confidence is moderate due to the speculative nature.
BAC
Latest_price: 49.73 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-14T14:39:26Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAC, live. 5 daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-07 O 53.19 H 53.68 L 52.91 C 53.52 V 30,913,500; 2026-10-08 O 52.98 H 53.61 L 52.24 C 53.61 V 59,809,500; 2026-10-09 O 53.41 H 54.40 L 53.41 C 54.32 V 28,781,400; 2026-10-12 O 54.50 H 54.93 L 54.24 C 54.58 V 23,975,700; 2026-10-13 O 54.44 H 54.85 L 53.64 C 53.96 V 44,949,900.
return_5d_pct: -0.24%
high_20d: 64.43
low_20d: 52.24
avg_volume_20d: 35,000,000
BAC reported Q3 2026 earnings on October 14 before the open, missing EPS estimates and facing a $1.2 billion fine for money laundering and sanctions violations. The stock is down 7.85% intraday. The negative news is already out, but the magnitude of the fine and the miss may continue to weigh on the stock as analysts revise estimates. The observed reaction is strongly negative, and volume is elevated. The strongest counter-evidence is the possibility of a bounce after the initial sell-off, but the fundamental damage from the fine could persist. A close above the 20-day high of 64.43 would invalidate the bearish thesis. Confidence is moderate.
PGR
Latest_price: 202.65 USD, quote_time: 2026-10-14T14:34:01Z, source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PGR, live. 5 daily bars (oldest to newest): 2026-10-07 O 211.76 H 215.74 L 211.76 C 214.12 V 2,551,200; 2026-10-08 O 215.31 H 220.04 L 214.65 C 218.73 V 2,749,400; 2026-10-09 O 217.50 H 220.17 L 217.16 C 217.43 V 1,466,200; 2026-10-12 O 219.01 H 220.84 L 218.30 C 220.28 V 1,864,400; 2026-10-13 O 220.96 H 223.78 L 219.86 C 222.88 V 3,501,000.
return_5d_pct: 5.11%
high_20d: 225.45
low_20d: 201.60
avg_volume_20d: 2,500,000
PGR reported Q3 2026 earnings on October 14 before the open, missing EPS by $0.05 and revenue falling short of estimates. The stock is down 9.08% intraday, the largest single-day drop since April 2025. The negative reaction is already significant, but the magnitude of the miss and the potential for further analyst downgrades could extend the decline. The observed volume is elevated, confirming selling pressure. The strongest counter-evidence is the possibility of an oversold bounce, but the fundamental disappointment may cap upside. A close above the 20-day high of 225.45 would invalidate the bearish thesis. Confidence is moderate.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | BAC, MS, BLK, SCHW, AA | +1.38% | 80% |
| Meta AI - Muse Spark | ASML, BLK, BAC, TSM, MS | -1.84% | 40% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL | -0.92% | 20% |
| Grok 4.5 | BAC, BLK, MS, ASML, TSM | -2.56% | 20% |
| GPT-6 | PNC, PLD, BNY, USB, SCHW | -0.24% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-14.
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