Event Gaps: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-09
Grok 4.5 picked DAL, VZ, TMUS, JPM, GS for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +0.47%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v12 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-09 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-12 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +0.47% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | +0.22% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | +0.09% | -0.09% | 72% | -0.31% | No | |
| 2 | VZ | -0.21% | +0.21% | 68% | -0.01% | No | |
| 3 | TMUS | -0.39% | +0.39% | 67% | +0.17% | Yes | |
| 4 | JPM | +1.21% | +1.21% | 65% | +0.99% | Yes | |
| 5 | GS | +1.72% | +1.72% | 63% | +1.50% | Yes |
The model's market view
Markets are digesting Delta's Q3 miss and guidance cut alongside SpaceX's spectrum deal that pressured major telecom carriers after hours Thursday into Friday. Bank earnings kick off Tuesday, so Monday's session will reflect positioning and anticipation ahead of JPM, GS, UNH and peers. Breadth is mixed with oil easing and AI jitters fading, favoring event-driven moves over broad beta.
Why each pick
DAL
Delta reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.72 versus ~$1.75-1.80 consensus and cut full-year 2026 EPS guidance to $5.10-$5.60 from $6.50-$7.50, citing elevated fuel costs. Shares already fell 2-3% in early trading; residual selling and guidance digestion typically continue into the next session. Risk is any positive commentary on demand or fuel hedging that sparks a rebound.
VZ
SpaceX definitive agreement to acquire nationwide 800 MHz low-band spectrum from Grain Management positions Starlink Mobile as a potential terrestrial competitor. Verizon shares dropped ~6-7% after-hours Thursday and continued lower Friday morning. Competitive overhang and further analyst notes are likely to sustain pressure over the one-session window. Risk is any clarifying statements limiting the near-term impact or tower-related offsets.
TMUS
Same SpaceX 800 MHz spectrum deal that triggered ~6-9% after-hours and early-session declines. T-Mobile is viewed as particularly exposed given prior spectrum transactions with Grain. Continuation of the competitive narrative into Monday is expected. Risk includes any positive industry commentary or FCC-related delays that could limit the selloff.
JPM
JPMorgan reports Q3 results before the open on Tuesday 2026-10-13. Consensus expects solid trading and investment-banking results amid strong capital-markets activity. Positioning and anticipation typically lift large banks in the session preceding the print, especially after a mixed macro week. Risk is any pre-announcement caution or rate-sensitivity concerns that dampen enthusiasm.
GS
Goldman Sachs reports Q3 before the open on Tuesday 2026-10-13 alongside other major banks. Strong trading and advisory revenue expectations support positive pre-earnings positioning. The one-session window captures anticipation rather than the post-print reaction. Risk is weaker-than-expected capital-markets commentary or broader financial-sector caution.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | HUM, CCI, TMUS, T, DAL | +0.16% | 20% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | DAL, TMUS, T, VZ, LEVI | -0.40% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | DAL, AAPL, HUM, CEG, AMD | +0.17% | 40% |
| Perplexity | HUM, TEVA, DAL, AAPL, LITE | -2.50% | 0% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | HUM, TMUS, LITE, CCI, DAL | -2.52% | 0% |
| DeepSeek | HUM, TEVA, T, VZ, AAPL | -0.88% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-09.
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