Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-09
Muse Spark 1.1 picked DAL, TMUS, T, VZ, LEVI for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -0.40%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v12 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-09 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-12 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -0.40% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.22% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | +0.09% | -0.09% | 78% | -0.31% | No | |
| 2 | TMUS | -0.39% | +0.39% | 75% | +0.17% | Yes | |
| 3 | T | -0.96% | +0.96% | 72% | +0.74% | Yes | |
| 4 | VZ | -0.21% | +0.21% | 70% | -0.01% | No | |
| 5 | LEVI | +2.38% | -2.38% | 65% | -2.60% | No |
The model's market view
Market is in earnings kickoff with Delta opening airline season and Levi closing retail Q3, while a sudden competitive shock from 【entity-SpaceX¦canonical_name=SpaceX】 buying nationwide 800 MHz low-band spectrum for Starlink Mobile is repricing telecom. Premarket shows telecom down 5-7% and airlines soft after DAL miss. Expect momentum continuation through Oct 9-12 window as guidance cuts and spectrum threat are digested.
Why each pick
DAL
Delta Air Lines reported Q3 2026 on Oct 9 before open, EPS $1.72 vs $1.77 consensus and revenue $17.59B vs $17.65B, plus cut full-year outlook citing jet fuel pressure from Middle East war. Price was $80.55 intraday Oct 9 down 1.94% from $82.14 prior close. Market reaction is observed and continuing. Downside risk is earnings miss continuation into next session. Meets floors: price ~$80, market cap ~$56B, avg dollar volume >$300M.
TMUS
T-Mobile US is leading telecom selloff after 【entity-SpaceX¦canonical_name=SpaceX】 announced definitive agreement to acquire up to 14 MHz of paired 800 MHz low-band nationwide spectrum from Grain Management for Starlink Mobile, enabling direct competition as major US carrier. TMUS fell 6.3% premarket Oct 9 to $158.93. Event occurred Oct 8 after close, officially announced, not uncertain expectation. Threat to pricing power and subscriber base drives further downside through window.
T
【entity-AT&T¦canonical_name=AT&T】 fell 5.7% premarket Oct 9 to $23.10 after 【entity-SpaceX¦canonical_name=SpaceX】 spectrum deal. Same catalyst as TMUS/VZ, observed Oct 8 announcement. 【entity-AT&T¦canonical_name=AT&T】 most exposed to low-band competition due to legacy spectrum dependence. Price floor met, market cap $170B, volume >$500M daily. Continuation risk high as analysts cut telecom multiples.
VZ
【entity-Verizon¦canonical_name=Verizon】 fell 5.1% premarket to $43.71 overnight and $46.35 prior close Oct 8. Same 【entity-SpaceX¦canonical_name=SpaceX】 spectrum catalyst. Observed fact, not scheduled future event. Downside expected as market prices new entrant with nationwide low-band. Meets price $46, cap $192B, volume >$400M.
LEVI
Levi Strauss reported Q3 FY2026 Oct 7 after close, EPS $0.48 vs $0.36 est beat 33%, revenue $1.61B in line. However stock fell 7.6% after hours Oct 8 to $18.53 because beat driven by tariff refunds, gross margin +450 bps one-time, and FY26 guidance 1.54-1.56 EPS vs consensus 1.54 and revenue $6.7B vs $6.8B est slight miss. Observed earnings, market still digesting quality of beat. Expect continued downside through window.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 | HUM, CCI, TMUS, T, DAL | +0.16% | 20% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | DAL, AAPL, HUM, CEG, AMD | +0.17% | 40% |
| Perplexity | HUM, TEVA, DAL, AAPL, LITE | -2.50% | 0% |
| Grok 4.5 | DAL, VZ, TMUS, JPM, GS | +0.47% | 60% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | HUM, TMUS, LITE, CCI, DAL | -2.52% | 0% |
| DeepSeek | HUM, TEVA, T, VZ, AAPL | -0.88% | 20% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-09.
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