Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-20
Muse Spark 1.1 picked GM, RTX, MMM, NFLX, SPCX for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +3.52%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-20 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-21 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +3.52% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.16% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GM | -3.37% | +3.37% | 68% | +3.53% | Yes | |
| 2 | RTX | -1.55% | -1.55% | 72% | -1.39% | No | |
| 3 | MMM | -1.00% | -1.00% | 65% | -0.85% | No | |
| 4 | NFLX | -6.96% | +6.96% | 60% | +7.12% | Yes | |
| 5 | SPCX | +9.04% | +9.04% | 58% | +9.20% | Yes |
The model's market view
Market is in peak Q3 earnings season with mega-cap tech reporting after close. Today's pre-open industrial beats (GM, RTX, MMM) have split reactions: RTX and MMM gapped up on raised outlooks while GM sold off on narrowed guidance despite beat and $20B buyback. After-close catalysts SPCX and NFLX will dominate anticipation trading during the window, with options implying ~8-9% moves. Near-term bias is stock-specific momentum continuation rather than broad index direction.
Why each pick
GM
Observed catalyst: Q3 2026 EPS $3.70 vs $3.61 est (+2.49% beat), EBIT up 21.6% to $4.1B, new $20B buyback, but full-year adjusted EPS narrowed to $12.75-$13.75 from $12-$14 and outlook trimmed. Already observed reaction: stock down -5.07% intraday (82.75 prev close to 78.55). Price path: prior 5d downtrend -5.05% 5d return, now breaking below 20d low. Volume elevated vs avg. Thesis: fundamental beat offset by guidance caution and EV sales drop creates emotional continuation risk to downside. Counter-evidence: strong cash flow and buyback support could reverse. Invalidation: close above $83.96 (prev close high) on high volume. Daily history source: https://finnhub.io/api/v1/quote?symbol=GM. Intraday quote as of 2026-10-20T14:30:00Z: latest_price 78.55 delayed regular-session, quote_time 2026-10-20T14:30:00Z, source https://finnhub.io/quote/GM, high_so_far 78.83 low_so_far 76.55 open 77.22 partial volume ~12M. Observed event-to-quote move -5.07% already. Remaining forecast is further drift down as market digests narrowed outlook. Expected move after current quote: -3%.
Daily 5d (oldest to newest): 2026-10-13 O 84.20 H 85.10 L 83.50 C 84.90 V 8500000 | 2026-10-14 O 84.80 H 85.00 L 83.20 C 83.60 V 9200000 | 2026-10-15 O 83.50 H 84.10 L 82.80 C 83.96 V 10100000 | 2026-10-16 O 83.90 H 84.20 L 82.50 C 82.90 V 11500000 | 2026-10-17 O 82.85 H 83.30 L 81.80 C 82.75 V 10800000 | return_5d_pct -2.1 | high_20d 91.84 | low_20d 76.55 | avg_volume_20d 10500000 | history_source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GM/history/
RTX
Observed catalyst: Q3 2026 sales $25.0B +11% YoY (+12% organic), adjusted EPS $2.26 vs $1.70 YoY and $1.78 est beat by $0.11-$0.48, backlog record $340B, raised FY26 sales to $97B from $95B, EPS to $7.65 from $7.10, FCF to $9B. Already observed reaction: up +0.57% to 193.22 intraday after open. Price action: prior 5d +3.9%, breaking above 20d consolidation, close near high of day shows continuation. Volume ~4.4M vs avg 4.44M 3mo. Thesis: fundamentals improvement in aero/defense drives expectation upgrade, emotional continuation likely. Counter: high valuation P/E 33 and profit-taking after run. Invalidation: close below 188.08 today's low. Daily source https://finnhub.io. Intraday latest_price 193.22 delayed regular-session quote_time 2026-10-20T14:30:00Z source https://finnhub.io/quote/RTX, open 193.28 high_so_far 197 low_so_far 188.08. Observed event-to-quote +0.57%. Expect further up as raises priced through tomorrow.
Daily 5d: 2026-10-13 O 186.50 H 188.00 L 185.80 C 187.20 V 4200000 | 2026-10-14 O 187.30 H 189.50 L 187.00 C 189.00 V 4500000 | 2026-10-15 O 189.10 H 191.00 L 188.50 C 190.20 V 4300000 | 2026-10-16 O 190.30 H 192.50 L 189.80 C 191.50 V 4800000 | 2026-10-17 O 191.60 H 193.00 L 191.00 C 192.11 V 4400000 | return_5d_pct 2.8 | high_20d 197.00 | low_20d 179.50 | avg_volume_20d 4440000 | history_source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RTX/history/
MMM
Observed catalyst: Q3 2026 adjusted EPS $2.50 vs $2.39-$2.41 est beat, revenue $6.58B +4.2% YoY in line, raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.10-$9.15 from $8.95 high. CEO cited solid sales growth, margin expansion. Already observed reaction: gap up +5.8% to 171.42 from 162.01 prev close. Price path: 5d +7.16%, today's high 172.38 close near high, no lower wick, volume surge (premarket 168.53 to 172.38). 20d high 184.90 not yet broken, so room. Counter: slight revenue miss vs $6.61B est could cause reversal. Invalidation: close below 162.13 today's low. Intraday latest_price 171.42 delayed regular-session quote_time 2026-10-20T14:35:00Z source https://finnhub.io/quote/MMM high_so_far 172.38 low_so_far 162.13 open 163.00. Observed event-to-quote +5.8%. Further continuation expected as guidance raise not fully priced.
Daily 5d: 2026-10-13 O 158.00 H 160.00 L 157.50 C 159.20 V 3500000 | 2026-10-14 O 159.30 H 161.00 L 158.80 C 160.50 V 3800000 | 2026-10-15 O 160.60 H 162.50 L 160.20 C 161.80 V 3600000 | 2026-10-16 O 161.90 H 163.00 L 161.00 C 162.30 V 4000000 | 2026-10-17 O 162.10 H 163.50 L 161.50 C 162.01 V 3900000 | return_5d_pct 1.5 | high_20d 184.90 | low_20d 155.20 | avg_volume_20d 3800000 | history_source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MMM/history/
NFLX
Scheduled catalyst: Q3 FY2026 earnings after close Oct 20, 2026, consensus EPS $0.82 and revenue $12.87B, options imply ~9% move. Fact vs expectation: date is officially scheduled, outcome unknown. Prior quarter showed beat alone not enough to sustain. Current intraday: price 70.23 up 0.54% before event, trading near 52-week low $65.08, YTD -25.1%, 1Y -43.3% showing weak momentum. Price path: 5d -0.1%, below 50/200 SMA, volume light. Thesis: anticipation of miss/weak guide given Zacks expecting miss by 0.25% and high cash content spend could drive down move in window as investors derisk into print. Emotional continuation risk is negative sentiment. Counter-evidence: low bar after -25% YTD could lead to short squeeze on beat. Invalidation: pre-event price spike above $75.09 SMA50 or post-event guide raise. Intraday latest_price 70.23 delayed regular-session quote_time 2026-10-20T14:30:00Z source https://finnhub.io/quote/NFLX high_so_far 70.66 low_so_far 69.50 open 69.84. Observed event-to-quote not yet occurred (upcoming). Expected move after current quote over window: down 4% into and reacting to earnings.
Daily 5d: 2026-10-13 O 71.00 H 72.00 L 70.00 C 70.80 V 8500000 | 2026-10-14 O 70.70 H 71.20 L 69.80 C 70.10 V 9200000 | 2026-10-15 O 70.20 H 70.90 L 69.50 C 69.90 V 9800000 | 2026-10-16 O 69.85 H 70.50 L 69.20 C 70.00 V 10100000 | 2026-10-17 O 70.10 H 70.40 L 69.50 C 69.85 V 8900000 | return_5d_pct -1.2 | high_20d 78.50 | low_20d 65.08 | avg_volume_20d 9500000 | history_source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history/
SPCX
Scheduled catalyst: Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX) Q3 earnings after close Oct 20, 2026, consensus $0.14 EPS $12.87B revenue, second full report since June 2026 IPO, first profit validation and AI self-sustaining focus. Fact vs expectation: date confirmed, outcome unknown. Price path: 5d -8.74% decline, 1mo -2.85%, prior earnings Aug 5 sank -13.6% on high AI spending despite revenue beat, showing market punishes cash burn. Current intraday 148.355 up 0.26% before print, range 143.27-148.5, volume ~1.6M vs 3mo avg. Thesis: high beta 4.86 and oversold decline creates rebound anticipation into print, plus AI spending narrative could be reframed. However continuation risk is negative if spending high again. Expect up move in window as shorts cover before print. Counter: elevated dilution risk and high P/E. Invalidation: confirmed miss on EPS or FCF or guide of higher AI capex causing after-hours drop below 143.27. Intraday latest_price 148.355 delayed regular-session quote_time 2026-10-20T14:30:00Z source https://finnhub.io/quote/SPCX high_so_far 148.50 low_so_far 143.27 open 146.165. Observed event-to-quote not yet occurred. Expected move after current quote: up 5% on anticipation.
Daily 5d: 2026-10-13 O 162.00 H 163.50 L 158.00 C 159.50 V 1800000 | 2026-10-14 O 159.00 H 160.20 L 152.00 C 153.50 V 2100000 | 2026-10-15 O 154.00 H 156.00 L 150.00 C 151.20 V 1950000 | 2026-10-16 O 151.00 H 152.50 L 147.00 C 148.80 V 2200000 | 2026-10-17 O 148.50 H 149.80 L 146.50 C 147.96 V 1600000 | return_5d_pct -6.5 | high_20d 165.00 | low_20d 143.27 | avg_volume_20d 1750000 | history_source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPCX/history/
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perplexity | NFLX, TSLA, META, TXN, GM | +1.04% | 40% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | NFLX, TSLA, NVDA, MSFT, AMD | -1.62% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | NFLX, ISRG, TSLA, META, GM | +1.67% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | NFLX, ISRG, UAL, ABT, ELV | -1.25% | 60% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | COF, ISRG, NFLX, UAL, ALK | -1.00% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | NFLX, ISRG, GE, GM, RTX | +1.32% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-20.
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