Event Gaps: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-20
Grok 4.5 picked NFLX, ISRG, TSLA, META, GM for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +1.67%. Picks with positive alpha: 60%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Grok 4.5 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v13 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-20 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-21 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +1.67% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 60% |
| Benchmark return | -0.16% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NFLX | -6.96% | +6.96% | 68% | +7.12% | Yes | |
| 2 | ISRG | -3.04% | -3.04% | 65% | -2.88% | No | |
| 3 | TSLA | +2.64% | +2.64% | 62% | +2.79% | Yes | |
| 4 | META | +2.39% | -2.39% | 60% | -2.23% | No | |
| 5 | GM | -3.37% | +3.37% | 58% | +3.53% | Yes |
The model's market view
US equities are mixed midday Tuesday with oil higher on geopolitical supply risks and AI/tech names under pressure after last week's sell-off. Heavy earnings calendar dominates: several industrials reported BMO with mixed guidance reactions, while high-profile AMC reports from Netflix and Intuitive Surgical tonight plus Tesla and Meta tomorrow create elevated volatility expectations into the close and next session. Anticipation and post-print reactions are likely to drive outsized 1-day moves in the selected names versus the broader market.
Why each pick
NFLX
Netflix reports Q3 results after the close today (confirmed). Consensus ~$0.82 EPS / ~$12.9B revenue. Stock has been under pressure on engagement and competition concerns, trading near recent lows after a multi-month decline. Historical median move around earnings ~8%. Latest quote ~$70.20 (delayed/intraday as of ~10:40 ET Oct 20 from multiple quote sources). Completed daily bars (oldest to newest, regular session US Eastern, split-adjusted): 2026-10-13 O71.16 H71.52 L70.42 C70.46 V27.8M; 2026-10-14 O70.77 H71.26 L69.37 C70.57 V40.0M; 2026-10-15 O71.55 H73.07 L71.34 C72.61 V40.4M; 2026-10-16 O69.87 H71.90 L69.76 C70.53 V44.2M; 2026-10-19 O69.75 H70.22 L69.02 C69.85 V34.0M. return_5d_pct approx -0.9. high_20d ~73.07 low_20d ~66.54 avg_volume_20d ~35M. Price action shows lower highs with elevated volume on down days; catalyst not yet reflected. Strongest counter-evidence is continued engagement slowdown or soft guidance. Invalidation: post-print close above $73 or clear beat-and-raise. Expect further downside into/after print on residual caution. latest_price 70.20 quote_time 2026-10-20T14:40:00Z source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/ delayed regular-session. Partial session open ~69.8 high_so_far ~70.66 low_so_far ~69.50.
ISRG
Intuitive Surgical reports Q3 after the close today. Strong recent price recovery from July lows but still well below January highs; consistent historical beats. Options imply ~7-8% move. Latest quote ~$434.5 (intraday Oct 20). Completed daily bars: 2026-10-13 O430.00 H430.00 L416.37 C422.06 V1.73M; 2026-10-14 O424.81 H425.50 L414.65 C420.24 V1.92M; 2026-10-15 O425.50 H429.89 L419.54 C427.86 V2.06M; 2026-10-16 O428.43 H434.89 L425.51 C426.70 V2.61M; 2026-10-19 O428.79 H434.62 L426.70 C433.18 V2.53M. return_5d_pct ~+2.6. high_20d ~434.89 low_20d ~389 avg_volume_20d ~2.3M. Volume has been average; price action constructive into print. Counter-evidence would be procedure volume miss or guidance cut. Invalidation: close below $420 post-print. Expect modest upside continuation on typical beat. latest_price 434.50 quote_time 2026-10-20T14:40:00Z source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ISRG/ delayed. Partial open ~433.5 high ~437 low ~432.
TSLA
Tesla reports Q3 after close Wednesday. Anticipation already visible in today's rebound from recent weakness; high volatility name with large historical earnings moves. Latest ~$373.5. Completed bars: 2026-10-13 O372.33 H377.05 L371.30 C375.23 V18.4M; 2026-10-14 O371.16 H371.39 L363.82 C367.16 V31.0M; 2026-10-15 O360.57 H363.75 L355.23 C362.44 V26.7M; 2026-10-16 O369.15 H370.50 L349.33 C354.72 V62.1M; 2026-10-19 O357.50 H369.58 L354.47 C368.06 V38.7M. return_5d_pct ~-1.9. high_20d ~388.56 low_20d ~345.88 avg_volume_20d ~35M. Recent high-volume sell-off followed by bounce; catalyst largely ahead. Counter is weaker EV demand or robotaxi timeline push. Invalidation: sustained break above $385 pre-print. Expect continued upside anticipation into tomorrow. latest_price 373.50 quote_time 2026-10-20T14:40:00Z source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/ delayed. Partial open ~370 high ~375 low ~364.
META
Meta reports Q3 after close Wednesday. Stock sold off sharply in recent sessions amid broader AI/tech pressure; large expected move. Latest ~$690. Completed bars: 2026-10-13 O735.99 H771.27 L734.84 C762.50 V22.7M; 2026-10-14 O760.75 H761.50 L734.29 C737.54 V16.2M; 2026-10-15 O726.56 H743.97 L715.58 C736.72 V16.9M; 2026-10-16 O736.70 H738.49 L702.71 C709.33 V20.6M; 2026-10-19 O707.16 H708.83 L693.86 C705.44 V16.3M. return_5d_pct ~-7.5. high_20d ~779 low_20d ~660 avg_volume_20d ~18M. Heavy selling volume on down days; sentiment fragile. Counter would be strong ad revenue beat. Invalidation: reclaim of $720. Expect further downside pressure on anticipation of spend scrutiny. latest_price 690.00 quote_time 2026-10-20T14:40:00Z source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/ delayed. Partial open ~695 high ~695 low ~681.
GM
General Motors reported Q3 BMO today: revenue and EPS beat but narrowed full-year guidance and large buyback authorization. Shares reacted lower in early trade on the guidance. Latest ~ mid-50s range (exact quote varies by source ~$55-60 area post-reaction). Completed prior bars show modest range; post-print continuation risk higher given guidance tone. Counter is the $20B buyback support. Invalidation: reclaim of pre-print levels. Expect residual downside into close as market digests. latest_price 55.50 quote_time 2026-10-20T14:40:00Z source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GM/ (approx from reaction reports). Daily history limited in snapshots; avg volume sufficient for liquidity.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muse Spark 1.1 | GM, RTX, MMM, NFLX, SPCX | +3.52% | 60% |
| Perplexity | NFLX, TSLA, META, TXN, GM | +1.04% | 40% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | NFLX, TSLA, NVDA, MSFT, AMD | -1.62% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | NFLX, ISRG, UAL, ABT, ELV | -1.25% | 60% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | COF, ISRG, NFLX, UAL, ALK | -1.00% | 40% |
| GPT-6 | NFLX, ISRG, GE, GM, RTX | +1.32% | 60% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Grok 4.5's picks for 2026-10-20.
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