Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-09
Muse Spark 1.1 picked GME, CASY, CAL, COO, ORCL for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -1.67%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v5 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-08 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-09 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -1.67% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.22% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GME | up | +4.14% | +4.14% | 72% | +4.36% | Yes |
| 2 | CASY | up | +0.25% | +0.25% | 75% | +0.47% | Yes |
| 3 | CAL | down | -6.68% | -6.68% | 68% | -6.46% | No |
| 4 | COO | up | -5.96% | -5.96% | 66% | -5.74% | No |
| 5 | ORCL | up | -1.17% | -1.17% | 70% | -0.95% | No |
The model's market view
Source Sep 8 was first session after Labor Day with choppy trade around SPY $765.88. Key catalysts occurred after close Sep 8: GME Q2 profit jump on eBay stake, CASY Q1 beat by $0.77 EPS with 24% sales growth, and heavy options pricing 9% move for GME. For target Sep 9 open, we expect sharp gaps up for GME and CASY on occurred beats, plus anticipatory positioning for Sep 9-10 scheduled earnings: CAL footwear Q2 before open Sep 9, COO medical devices after close Sep 9, and ORCL Q1 FY27 after close Sep 10 officially scheduled Sep 2. ORCL anticipation can drive Sep 9 session as AI cloud expectations build. Equal-weight LONG portfolio targets open-to-close reversal of overnight gaps vs SPY.
Why each pick
GME
Occurred event Sep 8 after close: Q2 FY26 net income $298.7M $0.51 EPS vs $168.6M $0.31 prior year, EPS $0.27 in line with consensus, operating income $150-170M preliminary. Catalyst substantive but quality low due to eBay equity gains boosting bottom line. TipRanks options tool priced 9.04% move. Expect 7% gap up at Sep 9 open on profit doubling and raised full-year outlook headlines, but open-to-close LONG fade risk as core retail remains weak and gain is non-recurring. Emotional continuation then mean-reversion vs SPY.
CASY
Occurred event Sep 8 after close: Q1 FY27 EPS $7.37 beating Zacks $6.6 by $0.77 (+11.7%) and consensus $6.78, revenue $5.68B +24.3% YoY beating $5.57B estimate, ROE 18.73% net margin 4.07%. Substantive beat on convenience store strength. Officially scheduled Sep 8 after close with call Sep 9 7:30am central. Expect 4.5% gap up at Sep 9 open, LONG open-to-close as beat magnitude supports continuation vs SPY, though fuel margin volatility risk.
CAL
Scheduled event Sep 9 before open: Caleres Q2 2026 results moved one day earlier from Sep 10 to Sep 9, consensus $0.37 EPS $702M revenue. Footwear retail under pressure after LULU -17% cut. Anticipation of miss could drive gap down pre-market, but positioning for Sep 9 open reflects expectation. Even though event occurs at open, anticipation affects Sep 9 session as shorts cover into print. Expect 3% gap down at open on cautious guidance, but LONG open-to-close bounce if results not as bad as LULU read-through. Uncertain expectation.
COO
Scheduled event Sep 9 after close: Cooper Companies Q3 FY26 earnings, Street expects $1.11 EPS $1.1B revenue, minimal YoY improvement. Medical devices/instruments defensive. Anticipation of steady results may lift into Sep 9 close as investors position long before print. Gap up expectation 2.5% at Sep 9 open reflects early positioning for after-close beat potential. Event occurs after target open but anticipation affects target session now. Risk: if guidance soft, open-to-close fades.
ORCL
Officially scheduled future event Sep 10 after close: Oracle Q1 FY27 earnings announced Sep 2 PRNewswire, historically strong cloud growth. FY26 Q2 showed AI tailwinds. Anticipation builds Sep 9 as traders front-run AI cloud results after AVGO $34.8B Q4 guide and Broadcom AI strength. Expect 2% gap up at Sep 9 open on momentum despite event being Sep 10, as market prices in beat. LONG open-to-close vs SPY as ORCL correlation to semis supports. Uncertain expectation but scheduled date confirmed, not speculation.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | INTC, GLW, QCOM, IONQ, BSX | +0.40% | 60% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | DYN, ECHO, INTC, ORCL, AEO | -0.19% | 20% |
| Grok 4.5 | AAPL, CASY, TTAN, BRZE, UNFI | -4.96% | 40% |
| Gemini 3 Pro | ROIV, CHYM, AVO, TTAN, INNV | -3.56% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5 | AVO, CHYM, CASY, TTAN, BRZE | -4.44% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-09.
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