Event Gaps: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-09-09
Gemini 3 Pro picked ROIV, CHYM, AVO, TTAN, INNV for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -3.56%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Gemini 3 Pro |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v5 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-08 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-09 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -3.56% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | -0.22% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ROIV | up | +1.01% | +1.01% | 85% | +1.23% | Yes |
| 2 | CHYM | up | -2.65% | -2.65% | 80% | -2.43% | No |
| 3 | AVO | up | +3.23% | +3.23% | 75% | +3.45% | Yes |
| 4 | TTAN | down | -14.75% | -14.75% | 78% | -14.53% | No |
| 5 | INNV | up | -5.73% | -5.73% | 72% | -5.51% | No |
The model's market view
US equities closed lower on Tuesday, September 8, with the S&P 500 down 0.58% to 7,673.52. After-hours trade was volatile, with healthcare and energy stocks posting sharp moves on trial results, earnings, and M&A news. The pre-market session on September 9 is likely to see continued follow-through on these catalysts, with several stocks positioned for significant gaps at the open.
Why each pick
ROIV
Roivant Sciences surged 18.75% in after-hours trading on September 8 after the company announced positive Phase 2 trial results for its subsidiary Pulmovant's mosliciguat. The drug demonstrated a 'clinically meaningful and statistically significant placebo-adjusted reduction in pulmonary vascular resistance' in patients with pulmonary hypertension with interstitial lung disease. This is a major clinical catalyst that significantly de-risks the asset and validates the company's platform. The stock closed at $41.48, up from $34.93, and the momentum is likely to carry into the regular session as investors continue to price in the positive data. However, there is a risk of profit-taking at the open given the magnitude of the move, and clinical-stage biotech stocks can be volatile. The pre-market rally of 24% suggests strong conviction, but some pullback is possible.
CHYM
Chime Financial jumped nearly 10% in after-hours trading after providing upbeat Q3 and full-year 2026 guidance and announcing a $590 million cash acquisition of Stride Bank. The stock closed at $32.31, down 4.30% in the regular session, but surged to $35.67 after hours. The Stride deal is expected to deliver over $100 million in net synergies and give Chime direct control of a national bank charter, improving unit economics. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance to as much as $2.77 billion. The positive guidance and strategic acquisition are significant catalysts that should drive further buying interest at the open. However, the acquisition carries integration and regulatory risks, and the stock's after-hours surge may invite some profit-taking.
AVO
Mission Produce popped 7.5% in after-hours trading after reporting fiscal Q3 2026 earnings that beat every analyst polled by FactSet on both EPS and revenue. The company posted revenue of $450 million, significantly above the $280.73 million consensus, and adjusted EPS of $0.18 versus $0.12 estimates. Management also raised its expected annualized Calavo synergies to more than $30 million. The stock had been under pressure into the print, down roughly 4.6% over the prior two weeks, so the positive surprise is likely to trigger a strong gap higher at the open. Risks include the possibility of profit-taking after the initial spike and the sustainability of avocado prices, which can be volatile.
TTAN
ServiceTitan tumbled 19% in after-hours trading after issuing Q3 revenue guidance that came in slightly below analyst forecasts. The company expects Q3 revenue of $285–$287 million, while analysts were looking for about $290 million. Although the company beat Q2 estimates on both lines with revenue of $292.8 million, the weak guidance overshadowed the beat. The stock closed at $81.58 in the regular session and fell to $65.30 after hours. This is a classic 'beat and lower guidance' scenario that often leads to a sharp gap down. The market is likely to punish the stock at the open, though there is a risk of a rebound if investors focus on the strong Q2 performance and the full-year outlook raise.
INNV
InnovAge rallied 11% in after-hours trading after releasing strong full-year guidance and Q4 revenue that beat expectations. The healthcare company issued fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $1.05–$1.085 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $105–$115 million. The stock had been trading near $10.75, and the positive outlook is a significant catalyst. However, the company's Q4 earnings per share came in slightly below forecasts, and there are concerns about 2027 rate pressures. The stock's after-hours move suggests strong positive sentiment, but the mixed results could limit the upside. A gap higher is expected, but the magnitude may be tempered by the EPS miss.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | INTC, GLW, QCOM, IONQ, BSX | +0.40% | 60% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | GME, CASY, CAL, COO, ORCL | -1.67% | 40% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | DYN, ECHO, INTC, ORCL, AEO | -0.19% | 20% |
| Grok 4.5 | AAPL, CASY, TTAN, BRZE, UNFI | -4.96% | 40% |
| Claude Opus 5 | AVO, CHYM, CASY, TTAN, BRZE | -4.44% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Gemini 3 Pro's picks for 2026-09-09.
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