Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-07
Muse Spark 1.1 picked APLD, PEP, LEVI, DAL, STZ for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: -2.16%. Picks with positive alpha: 20%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v12 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-07 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-08 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | -2.16% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 20% |
| Benchmark return | +0.20% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | APLD | -1.56% | -1.56% | 72% | -1.75% | No | |
| 2 | PEP | +1.46% | +1.46% | 68% | +1.27% | Yes | |
| 3 | LEVI | -5.38% | -5.38% | 65% | -5.57% | No | |
| 4 | DAL | -0.04% | +0.04% | 62% | -0.16% | No | |
| 5 | STZ | +4.36% | -4.36% | 60% | -4.56% | No |
The model's market view
Market is in early Q3 earnings season with mega-cap consumer staples and travel names as key reads. October 7-8 window is dominated by scheduled earnings: Applied Digital after close Oct 7, and 【entity-PepsiCo¦canonical_name=PepsiCo】, Levi Strauss, 【entity-Delta Air Lines¦canonical_name=Delta Air Lines】 before open Oct 8, plus Constellation Brands which reported Oct 6 after close with call Oct 7 morning. Volatility should be driven by guidance and AI infrastructure demand commentary rather than macro.
Why each pick
APLD
APLD reports Q1 FY2027 after close Oct 7 at 5pm ET. Consensus EPS -$0.31 on $137.6M revenue vs last quarter $0.04 adjusted. Stock is down into print with high beta and heavy AI data-center expectations. Recent price 24.11 intraday Oct 7. Anticipation of hyperscaler lease updates could move stock in regular session Oct 8 even before full reaction. If revenue beats and management confirms 200MW+ contracted, squeeze up. Risk: high short interest and dilution history cause sharp reversal if guidance weak.
PEP
PEP reports Q3 2026 before open Oct 8 at 6am ET, call 8:15am ET. Consensus EPS $2.30 revenue $24.97B. Stock near 52-week low 125.16 after downgrades from 【entity-JPMorgan¦canonical_name=JPMorgan】/Deutsche citing Frito-Lay North America weakness. Market expects soft volume. Any upside on organic growth or margin improvement and reaffirmed FY guidance 8.55-8.71 EPS could spark mean reversion. Price $124.575 recent intraday. Downside risk limited after -18% 6-month decline; bear case is further North America volume miss.
LEVI
LEVI reports Q3 2026 after close Oct 7, consensus $0.3584 EPS revenue $1.618B, FY guidance 1.46-1.52. Last quarter beat by 16.67% but stock dropped. Apparel demand and DTC trends key. Market cap 7.65B, price $19.81 intraday, volume 2.65M avg >$52M dollar volume meets floors. With print occurring within window, regular session Oct 8 will price reaction. Expect up if gross margin holds despite wholesale softness. Risk: consumer slowdown commentary could pressure down.
DAL
DAL estimated earnings Oct 8, 2026 before open, Q3 consensus ~$1.93-1.96 EPS. Peer airlines reported late July strength, but fuel and corporate demand remain swing factors. Market cap $55.3B price $82.81. High dollar volume ~$700M meets floor. Stock up 19% YTD into print, elevated expectations. Anticipation of travel demand and Q4 guidance will drive Oct 7-8 trading. Down call reflects risk of unit revenue miss and conservative Q4 outlook after recent rally.
STZ
STZ reported Q2 2027 Oct 6 after close: EPS $3.74 beat $3.55 estimate by $0.19, revenue $2.54B est, updated FY guidance 11.20-11.90. Call was Oct 7 8:00 AM ET, just before prediction time. Stock $115.085 intraday, market cap $19B, dollar volume ~240M meets floor. Post-earnings drift and analyst revisions will play out Oct 7-8 regular session. Beer depletions soft but wine/spirits cost control helped. Expect continuation down if guidance midpoint viewed as conservative and beer volume declines persist.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | APLD, LEVI, PEP, STZ, MRVL | -3.12% | 0% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | STZ, PEP, LW, LEVI, DAL | -2.69% | 0% |
| Perplexity | APLD, LEVI, PEP, DAL, C | +0.74% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | APLD, LEVI, PEP, DAL, OPCH | +0.87% | 40% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | PEP, LEVI, PENG, APLD, DAL | -0.53% | 40% |
| DeepSeek | LEVI, APLD, PEP, MRNA, STZ | +0.21% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-10-07.
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