Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-07
DeepSeek picked LEVI, APLD, PEP, MRNA, STZ for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +0.21%. Picks with positive alpha: 40%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | DeepSeek |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v12 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-10-07 |
| Measured to | 2026-10-08 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +0.21% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 40% |
| Benchmark return | +0.20% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LEVI | -5.38% | +5.38% | 65% | +5.18% | Yes | |
| 2 | APLD | -1.56% | -1.56% | 60% | -1.75% | No | |
| 3 | PEP | +1.46% | -1.46% | 55% | -1.66% | No | |
| 4 | MRNA | +4.04% | +4.04% | 60% | +3.85% | Yes | |
| 5 | STZ | +4.36% | -4.36% | 50% | -4.56% | No |
The model's market view
US equities are in a seasonally strong period but the near-term focus is on a handful of Q3 earnings reports and an index rebalance. Levi Strauss and Applied Digital report after the close on 7 October, PepsiCo reports before the open on 8 October, and Moderna's Nasdaq-100 inclusion is effective before the open on 9 October. These events create idiosyncratic gap opportunities that are largely uncorrelated with the broader market. I expect the reaction to be most pronounced in LEVI and APLD, where the after-hours move will set the tone for the following session. PEP faces a low bar but remains vulnerable to a guidance disappointment. MRNA's index-driven demand is likely to persist through the window, while STZ is digesting a pre-market report and may see follow-through selling.
Why each pick
LEVI
Levi Strauss reports fiscal Q3 2026 results after the close on 7 October. Consensus EPS is $0.36 on revenue of roughly $1.62 billion. The stock has been pressured by weak discretionary apparel spending, and a miss or cautious guidance could trigger a gap down. The after-hours reaction will be the primary driver for the 8 October session. The main risk is that the report beats and the stock rallies, forcing a short squeeze. The reference price is the most recent regular-session close from 7 October.
APLD
Applied Digital reports fiscal Q1 2027 results after the close on 7 October. Consensus EPS is -$0.31. The company is a high-beta data-center infrastructure play with a history of large post-earnings moves. The after-hours reaction will determine the direction for the 8 October session. I expect an upside surprise given the strong AI infrastructure spending environment. The primary risk is that the loss is wider than expected or guidance disappoints, leading to a sharp sell-off. The reference price is the latest intraday quote from 7 October.
PEP
PepsiCo reports Q3 2026 earnings before the market opens on 8 October. Consensus EPS is $2.30 on revenue of approximately $24.97 billion. The stock has declined about 10% year-to-date amid persistent North America weakness, and options are pricing a roughly 3.75% move. A cautious outlook or another quarter of weak organic growth could push the stock lower. The main risk is a better-than-feared report that sparks a relief rally. The reference price is the latest intraday quote from 7 October.
MRNA
Moderna is set to join the Nasdaq-100 Index before the market open on 9 October, replacing Warner Bros. Discovery. The inclusion is officially scheduled and will force index-tracking funds to buy the stock. Anticipation of this passive demand is likely to support the stock through the 7-8 October window. The main risk is that the stock has already rallied sharply on the announcement and could see profit-taking, especially after Citi warned of a sell-the-news reaction. The reference price is the most recent regular-session close from 6 October.
STZ
Constellation Brands released Q2 2027 earnings before the market opened on 7 October. The company beat revenue expectations but guidance concerns pressured the stock in pre-market trading. The event has already occurred, and the market is now digesting the report. Follow-through selling is possible as investors assess the outlook for beer and spirits demand. The main risk is a sharp intraday reversal if the initial negative reaction is overdone. The reference price is the latest intraday quote from 7 October.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | APLD, LEVI, PEP, STZ, MRVL | -3.12% | 0% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | STZ, PEP, LW, LEVI, DAL | -2.69% | 0% |
| Perplexity | APLD, LEVI, PEP, DAL, C | +0.74% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | APLD, LEVI, PEP, DAL, OPCH | +0.87% | 40% |
| Muse Spark 1.1 | APLD, PEP, LEVI, DAL, STZ | -2.16% | 20% |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | PEP, LEVI, PENG, APLD, DAL | -0.53% | 40% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: DeepSeek's picks for 2026-10-07.
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