Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-28
Muse Spark 1.1 picked MIRM, INCY, COST, NKE, KNDI for a 1-day horizon. Intraday alpha vs SPY: +7.09%. Picks with positive alpha: 80%.
| Experiment | Event Gaps |
|---|---|
| Model | Muse Spark 1.1 |
| Prompt version | event-gap-v9 |
| Asked | |
| Horizon | 1-day |
| Measured from | 2026-09-25 |
| Measured to | 2026-09-28 |
| Benchmark | SPY |
| Status | Settled |
| Intraday alpha vs SPY | +7.09% |
| Picks with positive alpha | 80% |
| Benchmark return | -0.36% |
The picks
| Rank | Symbol | Gap direction | Price change | Return in the called direction | Confidence | vs benchmark | Called right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIRM | up | -2.27% | -2.27% | 72% | -1.91% | No |
| 2 | INCY | up | +1.22% | +1.22% | 65% | +1.57% | Yes |
| 3 | COST | up | -0.16% | -0.16% | 62% | +0.20% | Yes |
| 4 | NKE | down | +2.62% | +2.62% | 60% | +2.98% | Yes |
| 5 | KNDI | up | +32.26% | +32.26% | 55% | +32.61% | Yes |
The model's market view
SPY flat on Sep 25 as market digests gains. Next regular open Sep 28 Monday faces weekend catalyst overhang: Costco earnings already beat on Sep 24 driving +2.3% Sep 25, Nike scheduled Sep 29 creating de-risk, and high-impact FDA PDUFA for Mirum/Incyte zilurgisertib on Sep 26 Saturday expected to drive gap Monday. Small-cap Kandi earnings BMO Sep 28 adds gap risk. Bias is selective gaps up in FDA names, modest continuation up for COST, down pre-earnings for NKE.
Why each pick
MIRM
MIRM has FDA Priority Review PDUFA for zilurgisertib in FOP on Sep 26. TradingView shows price 72.94 with recent -7% as market hedges. For 1-day target Sep 28, gap up likely if approval announced over weekend, as FDA accepted NDA and pivotal PROGRESS data showed no new heterotopic ossification lesions. This is a scheduled regulatory event, not yet occurred at prediction_time. Expected open-to-close also up if approval confirmed, but emotional continuation risk high if CRL. Intraday quote used from TradingView Sep 25.
INCY
INCY licensed zilurgisertib to MIRM, so same FDA PDUFA Sep 26 drives INCY. INCY current 123.665 intraday, down -0.62% on Sep 25, beta 0.78 lower than MIRM. Scheduled PDUFA not yet occurred. If approved, INCY receives milestone economics and validation; gap up Monday smaller than MIRM due to larger market cap diversification. Risk: CRL would cause modest down gap, and INCY already up 25% YTD. Intraday quote from Finnhub Sep 25.
COST
COST reported Q4 2026 on Sep 24 after close, beat EPS $6.75 vs $6.54 est, sales $93.9B +11.2%. Observed fact: report occurred, gap up Sep 25 open 887 to high 921.7, current 917.42 +2.33%. For target Sep 28 Monday, continued momentum gap up expected as analysts digest beat and tariff refund benefit $0.15. This is anticipation continuation of already occurred earnings, not scheduled. Risk: premium P/E 45, profit-taking after 1.78% 5-day run. Price is live intraday Sep 25 from Finnhub.
NKE
NKE earnings scheduled Sep 29 after close per Zacks, consensus $0.43, down -12.24% YoY, ESP -0.83% expecting miss. Current price 35.805, near 52-week low 35.35, down -43.8% YTD. For target Sep 28 Monday, de-risking ahead of scheduled earnings creates gap down. Event is officially scheduled, not yet occurred. Anticipation affects target session now as funds reduce exposure. Expected open-to-close could be choppy but gap direction down. Risk: oversold bounce if expectations too low, short squeeze.
KNDI
KNDI scheduled to report H1 2026 results Sep 28 before open, conference call 8am ET. Micro-cap EV equipment name, price 0.59 low volume, high gap propensity. Scheduled event not yet occurred, anticipation will drive gap at target open Sep 28 itself. If results better than low expectations, gap up; if weak, gap down but market expects up due to +6% recent momentum. Small-cap earnings gaps often exceed 4-5%. Risk: illiquid, $59M market cap, results may disappoint, wide spreads.
Other models on the same run
| Model | Picks | Intraday alpha vs SPY | Picks with positive alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 Sol | AKAM, MSFT, NKE, CMCSA, COST | +0.20% | 60% |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | MU, MIRM, AMD, INTC, CCL | -1.56% | 20% |
| Gemini 1.5 Pro | STFS, NKE, WKEY, MRK, WDAY | +1.48% | 80% |
| Perplexity | KNDI, MTN, JEF, POCI, GNS | +5.01% | 40% |
| Grok 4.5 | AKAM, SCHL, WTTR, PRME, MU | +0.42% | 60% |
| DeepSeek | AKAM, GRAL, BB, COST, INLF | +6.65% | 80% |
Written up on ForecastNest Insights: Event Gaps: Muse Spark 1.1's picks for 2026-09-28.
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